Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Overlander]

It isn’t a difficulty to achieve. You make smart buys, sell at a reasonable profit.

Repeat, don’t let it get personal.

I personally know a few people here…..and they get it

[Cascadia]

It isn’t a difficulty to achieve. You make smart buys, sell at a reasonable profit.

Repeat, don’t let it get personal.

I personally know a few people here…..and they get it

No one is going to believe you unless you post a picture of a deposit slip!

[ousdahl]

https://twitter.com/FortuneMagazine/sta ... ZEJALbGPYw

[Cascadia]

Starting to see reports that housing in my area might drop between 0-2% over the next year.

That MAJOR CRASH of winter 2019 (or sooner) might finally come true!!!

[Deleted User 863]

2% drop and rising interest rates isn't exactly something to be happy about if you're a homeowner/buyer/seller.

[twocoach]

Starting to see reports that housing in my area might drop between 0-2% over the next year.

That MAJOR CRASH of winter 2019 (or sooner) might finally come true!!!

We're still seeing a 10% yearly appreciation in home costs in our area, down from the 12+% year over year increases they were seeing earlier in the year but still profitable. We are putting our current house on the market next week; should be interesting to see how it goes in getting it sold. Fingers crossed.

[Cascadia]

Which makes sense. The market where I live has been on fire for over a decade. My house has quadrupled in value since I bought it in 2011. Just insane.

[japhy]

Colorado Springs market has "cooled" to the extent that you can't ask for whatever you want and get it. The house 2 doors down from us sold for $395K about 18 months ago. It needed some updating. The new owners might have put $25-30K into it. They put it back on the market for $740K a month ago. We started watching it just cuz the price seemed out of whack with previous sales. They "only" got $675K for it. It is hard to call it a collapse when the slow down means your property has only increased in value 55% over the course of two years. But we are seeing prices start to level off.

The Empire has seen a rise is prices as well, maybe 50% in the last couple of years. It is harder to judge there as the market is tight for housing and few places come up for sale. But a 2000 sf 1950's ranch house in the mountains with garage and shop on 2 acres for $230K still seems like a relative bargain to me. For someone who was able to work remotely this falls into the "cheaper than renting" category for Colorado. But we are seeing younger people from California and Denver start to trickle into the Valley so that might change in the near future.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4978 ... 7281_zpid/

[KUTradition]

i’d be on that like white on rice if i could work remotely

[ousdahl]

Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/11242720 ... gage-rates

[KUTradition]

https://www.lincolninst.edu/pt-br/publi ... oid-moment

[defixione]

I've petitioned the Lawrence city commission several times for a variance on their zoning mandates and have been surprisingly successful.

[ousdahl]

https://twitter.com/ericmgarcia/status/ ... F8oDbOEMaw

[japhy]

"Wildly misinformed" seems a bit harsh but maybe it is a fair assessment given that we are going on 4 years of waiting for the hammer to drop.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3827 ... ng-market/

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Can/could use some advice from "un-biased" people.
No, I don't expect anyone to read this entire post but if someone does and responds respectfully - fantastic.

I currently rent. Moved into my current building the day KU won the National Championship in 2008. Have lived in my current apartment since I believe 2011. Maybe 2012.
It's a mid size (for Chicago) 1 bedroom apartment.
I like my apartment but it could use some upkeep and I like two windows in my bedroom and there is only one. Other apartments in the building have two (or more) windows in the bedroom. Semi difficult to explain why but my one window is referred to as a "fire window" and it can only open "a crack".
I am currently paying approximately 2350 a month.
There is a renovated one bed room apartment in the building that is a little nicer than my current apartment that is available starting today.

Here is where it gets tricky and I could use the advice.
A. My lease is up in May. I am assuming my rent will increase to about 2500 a month.
B. The new apartment is currently available for 2445 but that's for "new" residents. My guess is they would/will try and get 2550 t0 2600 from me. In other words, more than what it would cost to stay in my current apartment.
C. The new apartment does have the two windows in the bedroom - and is a little nicer than my current apartment but.... My current view in my living room is a nicer with more windows and more natural light.
D. While money is definitely a factor, I would love to be living in a 2 bedroom apartment because frankly I would like to make the 2nd bedroom an "office" and a place to put my shit - meaning collectibles/shoes/clothes/etc. Unfortunately a 2 bedroom in my current building is approximately 3000 a month. More than I can/care to comfortably budget myself for AT THIS TIME.
E. I am 56 years old - with a heart condition. I would like to retire in the next 5/7/10 years and if/when I do, I would probably like to move out of Chicago/Illinois.
F. My mother is 89 years old. Part of why I live where I do is to be close to her. She very well may outlive me but if/when she dies, despite my job being in Chicago, I will no longer feel "tied" to Chicago and am free to move to another city.

Which brings me to G and H.
G. There are a shit load of 1 and 2 bedroom apartments/condos for sale available in the Chicagoland area. My mortgage would be less than my rent but property taxes are ridiculous in Chicago (and Cook County Illinois), there are assessment fees, and of course I would have to pay for various things I would need for the apartment as well as renovations/repairs/maintenance. So it would cost considerably more than renting - in my current building or a comparable building.
H. Should I stay in my current apartment until I figure out what I truly want to do - long/er term, move in to the new apartment in the building until I figure out what I truly want to do - long/er term, or start looking for a place to buy and move there until I figure out what to do - long/er term?

[Deleted User 863]

I think you'd be happier in the new apartment in the same building. For now. And the move would be easier than most since your stuff is moving within your current building and not needing to be loaded up and hauled to another building. You'd have 2 bedroom windows and the cost isn't too different.

Don't buy a place and then do a 30yr mortgage on somewhere you only plan to live 5-7 years because the interest is front loaded.

Good luck G.

[dolomite]

Holy crap, that rent is ungodly. I have a couple of rentals here in small town Arizona but dont’t charge even half that much. Tenants have been there for about ten years and I’ve never raised their rent.
Don’t know why landlords have to be so frickin greedy.

[Overlander]

Wait? Are telling us that rents are HIGHER in places that people want/need to be?

This changes my entire real estate portfolio.

[TDub]

get out of Chicago Gutman. Its better for your health.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Looked at 2 apartments this morning. I'm torn. Both had positives and negatives. Both a small upgrade over my current apartment for various reasons - but my current apartment is really just fine.
That being the case, I'm thinking it might be best to stay put - for now.
Unfortunate thing is my bonus/compensation/raise(?) doesn't happen until mid March and hasn't been determined yet. If I knew today what it will be - and it is substantial, I would probably be more inclined to move and take on a rent increase.
Sorry to have rambled on - on here - but I think I am typing and sharing my conundrum to sort of put things "on paper" and think out loud.