Kansas Crimson

Walrus acts like people who have household income in the 500k+ range are going to run out of money.

Not totally related, but sort of....all this covid19 stuff makes me wonder if airbnb type rentals wont actually be more appealing in our new normal? Large hotels would worry me enough that were i traveling i would be much more inclined to seek out an airbnb type rental than i would have been 7 months ago.

Also sort of related, for instance my bank is stressing over our low income rental property landlords since a portion of their tenants tend to be in service industry type jobs that may be out of work or at the very least significantly reduced income due to reduction in tips and hours. And these landlords have tendancy to let themselves get far too leveraged....much more so than we are worried about more "middle class" type people that may miss a mortgage payment or 2, but not enough to worry about foreclosure (since it is difficult to foreclose on a primary residence even if a person is behind on payments assuming they are still making occasional payments).

We are also paying close attention to the global cash flows of our larger customers who own hotels because occupancy is non existent in most of our markets. Thankfully for us, which may be pure luck, our handul of customers who do hotel development projects have multiple sources of income not related to the hotel industry, so they should be able to service their debts even if there is a long period of financial trouble for hotels....we also make our customers sign personally so they are far less likely to go the trump route and file bankruptcy to avoid paying debts on projects gone bad.

IllinoisJayhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:07 pm Not totally related, but sort of....all this covid19 stuff makes me wonder if airbnb type rentals wont actually be more appealing in our new normal? Large hotels would worry me enough that were i traveling i would be much more inclined to seek out an airbnb type rental than i would have been 7 months ago.

I spoke with Jason Hartman recently and he believes that the AirBnB rentals that are within a few hours of driving might do "okay" in this recession (depending upon how appealing they are). However, he also believes the ones that require flying to are going to suffer, and they already are. There was a story of a man in LA who owned a bunch of them in the city and he was losing 20K a month back in May. He also believes we won't see appreciation in the bubble markets again for a long time. Linear markets are another story.

jeepinjayhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:29 pm Walrus acts like people who have household income in the 500k+ range are going to run out of money.

Which reminds me - Lobster/Walrus started this thread in August of 2019. He said a major housing crash was coming that winter or even sooner.

Did it happen and I missed it?

Because I'd hate to think that Walrus/Lobster is full of shit. That just can't be true.

chiknbut wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:52 am

jeepinjayhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:29 pm Walrus acts like people who have household income in the 500k+ range are going to run out of money.

Which reminds me - Lobster/Walrus started this thread in August of 2019. He said a major housing crash was coming that winter or even sooner.

Did it happen and I missed it?

Because I'd hate to think that Walrus/Lobster is full of shit. That just can't be true.

Lest us forget Lobster told us to put all our money in Bitcoin when it was $20k. It crashed to $4k a couple of months later.

That's nonsense. Point out where I did such thing.

.net. The site is down now.

Right, so anyone on here can make up any lie and say it was on .net.

Works for you.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:37 amWorks for you.

That wasn't nice.

If anyone is curious as to what will likely happen in the near future, the stock market is likely going to crash again in November. Considering it's being held up by QE, it's not going to stay up for long.

Walrus wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:45 am If anyone is curious as to what will likely happen in the near future, the stock market is likely going to crash again in November. Considering it's being held up by QE, it's not going to stay up for long.

Well, you were spot on when it came to the housing market crash in the Winter of 2019, so why wouldn't we believe you on this?

I don't care you believe me. The crash of the stock market and real estate (both residential and commercial) is coming. Billionaires are shorting commercial real estate -- why would that be? My timing was off a little, but it's going to happen. Those on here who are more sincere might try to prepare their retirements accordingly.

Except, all markets go up and down. Everyone knows that. Understanding precisely when it happens is all that matters. If you don't get that right, your prediction is meaningless.

I can throw a pork butt in a barbecue and predict that it will eventually reach the ideal temperature for pulled pork, but if I pull it out 4 hours too soon or 4 hours too late I'm not a very good pitmaster.

That's like Joe Lunardi getting the teams and seeds wrong but bragging because he was right that there would be 68 teams in the tournament.

Bubbles ≠ markets going up and down.

Just wait and see next year how this plays out next year. I bet my username on it, as it's 99% certain home prices will decline by 2021 summer.

Broken clocks are right twice a day.

And you switch usernames as often as gutter.

Also, I don't think anyone said specifically there isn't a housing bubble, it's just know one believes that you know when it'll burst. Also, unless you're buying or selling a house, who fucking cares?

It's already burst. I've already explained why. Forbearance is the bandaid that is postponing it for now.

Why are you bothered so much about my prediction if you don't care?

who said I was bothered by it?

This thread is now 7 pages long because you won't shut up about it, that's why I responded. You act like you're saving us all from impending doom, or giving us some insider trading tip. I don't understand what you're doing? You made a prediction it was wrong, now you're moving the goal posts. That doesn't make you Nostradamus, it just means you were wrong.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:10 pm who said I was bothered by it?

Right