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Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:32 am
by jfish26
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:25 am
1-2 years early on the Chiefs. Factoring in raw stats and penalties, they probably have the worst defense in the NFL. And then
an offense that no longer looks out of this world and Andy Reid is good for 1-2 bonehead moves over 2 games.
Mahomes is different. Chiefs feel different. Meaning a home loss in AFC Championship sounds right.
It is certainly true that any wishcasting on the Chiefs assumes a return to September/October form for the offense. Generally, I worry more about teams with mobile quarterbacks (Houston, Baltimore) than ones with statues. The Chiefs' only discernible adequacy on defense is putting pressure on quarterbacks.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:35 am
by Cascadia
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:25 am
1-2 years early on the Chiefs. Factoring in raw stats and penalties, they probably have the worst defense in the NFL. And then an offense that no longer looks out of this world and Andy Reid is good for 1-2 bonehead moves over 2 games.
Mahomes is different. Chiefs feel different. Meaning a home loss in AFC Championship sounds right.
This has been my thinking all year. Goal is AFC championship game. Anything else is a bonus
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
by jfish26
Cascadia wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:35 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:25 am
1-2 years early on the Chiefs. Factoring in raw stats and penalties, they probably have the worst defense in the NFL. And then an offense that no longer looks out of this world and Andy Reid is good for 1-2 bonehead moves over 2 games.
Mahomes is different. Chiefs feel different. Meaning a home loss in AFC Championship sounds right.
This has been my thinking all year. Goal is AFC championship game. Anything else is a bonus
Which is, in and of itself, a great distillation of how
wildly successful this year has been for the Chiefs. If they would have been in contention for a playoff berth this year, with Mahomes having shown signs of being
a guy, any reasonable fan would have taken that and smiled.
Instead, they're likely to be the AFC's top seed, and Mahomes looks like
the guy.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
by CrimsonNBlue
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:32 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:25 am
1-2 years early on the Chiefs. Factoring in raw stats and penalties, they probably have the worst defense in the NFL. And then
an offense that no longer looks out of this world and Andy Reid is good for 1-2 bonehead moves over 2 games.
Mahomes is different. Chiefs feel different. Meaning a home loss in AFC Championship sounds right.
It is certainly true that any wishcasting on the Chiefs assumes a return to September/October form for the offense. Generally, I worry more about teams with mobile quarterbacks (Houston, Baltimore) than ones with statues. The Chiefs' only discernible adequacy on defense is putting pressure on quarterbacks.
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
by jfish26
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:32 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:25 am
1-2 years early on the Chiefs. Factoring in raw stats and penalties, they probably have the worst defense in the NFL. And then
an offense that no longer looks out of this world and Andy Reid is good for 1-2 bonehead moves over 2 games.
Mahomes is different. Chiefs feel different. Meaning a home loss in AFC Championship sounds right.
It is certainly true that any wishcasting on the Chiefs assumes a return to September/October form for the offense. Generally, I worry more about teams with mobile quarterbacks (Houston, Baltimore) than ones with statues. The Chiefs' only discernible adequacy on defense is putting pressure on quarterbacks.
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
by CrimsonNBlue
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:32 am
It is certainly true that any wishcasting on the Chiefs assumes a return to September/October form for the offense. Generally, I worry more about teams with mobile quarterbacks (Houston, Baltimore) than ones with statues. The Chiefs' only discernible adequacy on defense is putting pressure on quarterbacks.
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Essentially, the Chiefs just have to score a lot of points to win. Which, they're capable.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
by NewtonHawk11
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:49 am
by NewtonHawk11
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Essentially, the Chiefs just have to score a lot of points to win. Which, they're capable.
Ding ding ding. They'll score at least 30 in every game and you have to hope that the other team doesn't score more.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:51 am
by NewtonHawk11
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:32 am
It is certainly true that any wishcasting on the Chiefs assumes a return to September/October form for the offense. Generally, I worry more about teams with mobile quarterbacks (Houston, Baltimore) than ones with statues. The Chiefs' only discernible adequacy on defense is putting pressure on quarterbacks.
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Saw some interesting film from the Pats last game at home against Buffalo. Any time Brady FELT like he was going to get pressure, he got rid of the ball so fast and bailed on many throws. Many of those throws were with nobody within 5 feet of him. He's worried about getting hit.
The Chiefs against Brady would play press coverage and hope that the pressure can get to Brady within a couple of seconds.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:52 am
by CrimsonNBlue
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
I just wish the Steelers were in b/c KC sports radio would be fantastic knowing the Chiefs were sure to play at home against one of NE, PIT, BAL or IND.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:53 am
by jfish26
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:51 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:37 am
It actually looks like Watson has been sacked 56 times, which is most in NFL. That bodes well for Chiefs. Flacco/Jackson a combined 30 times. Rivers 32 times. Brady just 20 and Luck only 17.
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Saw some interesting film from the Pats last game at home against Buffalo. Any time Brady FELT like he was going to get pressure, he got rid of the ball so fast and bailed on many throws. Many of those throws were with nobody within 5 feet of him. He's worried about getting hit.
The Chiefs against Brady would play press coverage and hope that the pressure can get to Brady within a couple of seconds.
Of course, Brady is as smart as they come and would (and should!) just chuck the ball at a receiver in those situations and hope (expect!) that some Chiefs DB will bail him out.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:56 am
by NewtonHawk11
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:53 am
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:51 am
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:45 am
I don't think sacks taken is, in this context, a great proxy for mobility. The Chiefs' DBs are SO FUCKING BAD that what I'm concerned with is a mobile quarterback's ability to buy time and find a coverage breakdown 20 yards downfield. No doubt Brady (and Luck) would get the ball out quickly (and find open guys).
Saw some interesting film from the Pats last game at home against Buffalo. Any time Brady FELT like he was going to get pressure, he got rid of the ball so fast and bailed on many throws. Many of those throws were with nobody within 5 feet of him. He's worried about getting hit.
The Chiefs against Brady would play press coverage and hope that the pressure can get to Brady within a couple of seconds.
Of course, Brady is as smart as they come and would (and should!) just chuck the ball at a receiver in those situations and hope (expect!) that some Chiefs DB will bail him out.
Which they would. But man, these throws were 5 yards short of receivers or way out of bounds. He wasn't even giving guys a chance. There was one play where he had Gronk and Edelman WIDE OPEN, but he was so worried about a slight pressure up the middle he just chucked the ball out of bounds.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:56 am
by jfish26
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
No, there isn't a "more desirable" scenario in which you go to Foxboro in January. Nope nope nope.
There's also not a "more desirable" scenario where you have to win three games (including at least two on the road) to get to the Super Bowl, instead of two games, both at home.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:58 am
by NewtonHawk11
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:52 am
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
I just wish the Steelers were in b/c KC sports radio would be fantastic knowing the Chiefs were sure to play at home against one of NE, PIT, BAL or IND.
Flashbacks all over. Although KC doesn't have near the history with Baltimore, but man having the slight possibility of the Colts or Steelers come to town is all sorts of bad memories. I think KC could beat NE fairly easily and they did it already against Baltimore, but that's a nasty matchup for the Chiefs.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:59 am
by NewtonHawk11
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:56 am
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
No, there isn't a "more desirable" scenario in which you go to Foxboro in January. Nope nope nope.
There's also not a "more desirable" scenario where you have to win three games (including at least two on the road) to get to the Super Bowl, instead of two games, both at home.
True. But I'm looking at it like NCAA tournament. All about matchups. But yes I'd rather 2 games at home than 3 games with 2 on the road at minimum.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:00 am
by CrimsonNBlue
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:58 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:52 am
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:48 am
As a Chiefs fan, I would almost rather be a 3 seed. Play the Colts/Titans in the WC round. then win that one and you play the Pats/Texans for a trip to AFC Championship. Either matchup goes well for Chiefs.
But with them being a 1 seed, it's a tough matchup in the divisional round unless the 6 beats the 3. The most likely teams you could play are the Ravens, Chargers or Colts/Titans. You want the 6 to beat Houston because you don't want Baltimore or Chargers coming to Arrowhead in Divisional round.
AFC is wide open though Any of the top 5 teams could go all the way to Super Bowl.. Don't think anyone will go to New Orleans and win.
I just wish the Steelers were in b/c KC sports radio would be fantastic knowing the Chiefs were sure to play at home against one of NE, PIT, BAL or IND.
Flashbacks all over. Although KC doesn't have near the history with Baltimore, but man having the slight possibility of the Colts or Steelers come to town is all sorts of bad memories. I think KC could beat NE fairly easily and they did it already against Baltimore, but that's a nasty matchup for the Chiefs.
Baltimore has to feel like they got robbed.
You look at the Chiefs (and rams) since that Rams MNF matchup that was supposed to be a SB preview and there isn't much to like. Chiefs need this weekend.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:10 am
by jfish26
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:00 am
NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:58 am
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:52 am
I just wish the Steelers were in b/c KC sports radio would be fantastic knowing the Chiefs were sure to play at home against one of NE, PIT, BAL or IND.
Flashbacks all over. Although KC doesn't have near the history with Baltimore, but man having the slight possibility of the Colts or Steelers come to town is all sorts of bad memories. I think KC could beat NE fairly easily and they did it already against Baltimore, but that's a nasty matchup for the Chiefs.
Baltimore has to feel like they got robbed.
You look at the Chiefs (and rams) since that Rams MNF matchup that was supposed to be a SB preview and there isn't much to like. Chiefs need this weekend.
In more ways than one. Obviously there is a probabilistic gulf between the 1-seed and the 5-seed. And they also need to, in basketball parlance, see the ball go in the hoop a bit.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:17 am
by CrimsonNBlue
Oh I thought Chiefs were locked into a top-2 seed.
Well yeah then, I guess given the way they've been playing lately, it's a blessing in disguise that they can't sit Week 17 out.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:52 pm
by Geezer
Our Super Bowl chances were left in a hotel in Cleveland.
Re: NFL 2018
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:57 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
Geezer wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:52 pm
Our Super Bowl chances were left in a hotel in Cleveland.
I was talking to a Chiefs fan friend about this. You know the Chiefs are going to Chiefs, and it's just a matter of what and when. So, when the Chiefs Chief, anything that is not a Teddy Bridgewater-esque injury (or worse) to Mahomes is really a blessing. Knock on wood. Gotta take the Kareem hit and move on.