Re: who ya got?
Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:08 pm
Today In: "The Campaign Commercials Write Themselves":
https://twitter.com/chrislongview/statu ... tfw">March
Page 123 of 229
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:13 am
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:23 am
and he continues to fail
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:38 am
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:15 am
That's a really good ad. Ron Klain is one of those people with that ability to speak simply so that we can all get it.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:20 pm
Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman
Poll of the week: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52% to 43% in a general election matchup.
An average of all polls this month puts Biden's advantage at a similar 7 points.
What's the point: For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.
Now, we're still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden's advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.
Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden's position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold.
Moreover, there's something to be said about the consistency of Biden's edge. Despite the ever-shifting news cycle, Biden's lead in the average of polls has been between 5 and 10 points throughout the last year. In other words, Trump's general election polling has stayed stable, just like his approval ratings.
This fits a pattern of general election polling being less volatile than it used to be. You saw it in 2018, when Democrats held a consistent edge on the generic congressional ballot, which translated to them taking back the House. The polling at this point in the last two presidential elections in which an incumbent was running matched the final result within 0.3 percentage points.
I can hear some folks saying, "It's the states that matter, not the popular vote." And indeed, Trump is probably in a stronger position in the electoral college than the popular vote alone would suggest.
Still, Biden, at this time, clearly has the advantage in the electoral college. Biden holds leads of 4 points or more in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Add those states together with the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and Biden gets more than 270 electoral votes.
This reaffirms something that the 2018 midterms showed: it's very difficult to overcome a 7-point deficit nationally even if you're doing better in the electoral college. If all the states voted the way they did in the 2018 midterms for the House, Biden would easily defeat Trump in the electoral college.
[...]
Poll of the week: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52% to 43% in a general election matchup.
An average of all polls this month puts Biden's advantage at a similar 7 points.
What's the point: For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.
Now, we're still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden's advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.
Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden's position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold.
Moreover, there's something to be said about the consistency of Biden's edge. Despite the ever-shifting news cycle, Biden's lead in the average of polls has been between 5 and 10 points throughout the last year. In other words, Trump's general election polling has stayed stable, just like his approval ratings.
This fits a pattern of general election polling being less volatile than it used to be. You saw it in 2018, when Democrats held a consistent edge on the generic congressional ballot, which translated to them taking back the House. The polling at this point in the last two presidential elections in which an incumbent was running matched the final result within 0.3 percentage points.
I can hear some folks saying, "It's the states that matter, not the popular vote." And indeed, Trump is probably in a stronger position in the electoral college than the popular vote alone would suggest.
Still, Biden, at this time, clearly has the advantage in the electoral college. Biden holds leads of 4 points or more in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Add those states together with the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and Biden gets more than 270 electoral votes.
This reaffirms something that the 2018 midterms showed: it's very difficult to overcome a 7-point deficit nationally even if you're doing better in the electoral college. If all the states voted the way they did in the 2018 midterms for the House, Biden would easily defeat Trump in the electoral college.
[...]
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:23 pm
Anybuddy know what happened to that Truman guy?
Also, Ron Klain is a lifetime political hack. His job in 2014 was to ensure Ebola stayed off the front pages until after the midterms.
I would think that Biden's best interests would be served by NOT reminding people about how they intentionally buried Ebola.
But, I'm almost certain, that's just me.
Also, Ron Klain is a lifetime political hack. His job in 2014 was to ensure Ebola stayed off the front pages until after the midterms.
I would think that Biden's best interests would be served by NOT reminding people about how they intentionally buried Ebola.
But, I'm almost certain, that's just me.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:34 pm
Anything that compares the handling of Ebola to the handling of COVID-19 would be in Biden's favor, justified or not.DCHawk1 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:23 pm Anybuddy know what happened to that Truman guy?
Also, Ron Klain is a lifetime political hack. His job in 2014 was to ensure Ebola stayed off the front pages until after the midterms.
I would think that Biden's best interests would be served by NOT reminding people about how they intentionally buried Ebola.
But, I'm almost certain, that's just me.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:11 pm
You should probably push back from the computer for a bit.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:25 pm
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:31 am
Just following the example that you've long set for us, DC, by insinuating anti-semitism when anyone criticized one of your favorite conservative Republicans.
I actually assume that you disdain Klain because he's a lawyer.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:46 am
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 am
Geez.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:21 pm
Where has Joe been? Someone lose Grandpa Joe?!
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:07 pm
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:55 pm
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:00 pm
So...at some point -- like maybe after you watch the interview with Nicolle Wallace -- do you start to think about nominating someone else?
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:34 pm
Haven't seen the interview, probably don't want to. Would have preferred someone else, likely someone who didn't run because Biden did. One thing's for sure, he's no Trump.
Re: who ya got?
Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Count has to be happy Sleepy Joe has had a bad last 12-24 hours.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/joe-biden ... pearances/
https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/joe-biden ... pearances/