2024

[Shirley]

When governments know they legally cannot do something such as mandate a shot, they use what's called "the camels nose under the tent". Sure, you can lie and pretend it's not a mandate, but that's like saying if the mafia threatens you with death then that's also not a use of force.

Or - and I know this runs counter to the I'm-entitled-to-act-like-a-child-if-I-want ethos of the MAGA right, but bear with me - conditioning access to benefits, privileges and services on compliance with rules is sort of how the adult world works.

^^^

In order for hospitals to receive government payments for programs like Medicare, et al, they have to agree not to turn patients without insurance or an inability to pay, away.

[jfish26]

When governments know they legally cannot do something such as mandate a shot, they use what's called "the camels nose under the tent". Sure, you can lie and pretend it's not a mandate, but that's like saying if the mafia threatens you with death then that's also not a use of force.

Pro tip: Be more specific in your whining, if you'd like to be understood.

no charge

Sort of amazing how huffy the "operate the government like a business" crowd gets when the government, you know, actually does just that.

[pdub]

So what are the odds that the Supreme Court rules correctly on sec 3, amendment 14( i.e. no Trump on general ballot )?
10-1 odds?

"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

[jfish26]

So what are the odds that the Supreme Court rules correctly on sec 3, amendment 14( i.e. no Trump on general ballot )?
10-1 odds?

"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

I think this is still in range:

I think we're going to see the Court casually dropkick the immunity thing right into hell.

The disqualification thing has more offramps (of varying degrees of weaselliness) available, but is an even more potent political opportunity for the Court.

The wording of the disqualification thing seems to be pretty plain in the Constitution so I will be interested to see how they interpret that argument.

I would handicap the outcomes about like:

20% - Court conclusively finds that Trump is disqualified.
10% - Court finds that these determinations belong to states.
67% - Court finds that Trump was an "officer of the United States" (and is thus subject to the disqualification clause), but that there has not been a sufficient finding to support a conclusive determination that he is disqualified.
1% - Court declines to hear disqualification clause cases.
1% - Court conclusively finds that Trump was not an "officer of the United States" (and is thus not subject to the disqualification clause).
1% - Court conclusively finds that Trump did not engage in insurrection/rebellion (and is thus not disqualified).

[Sparko]

The 14th Amendment isn't something you are allowed to ignore thru the election of Jeff Davis. If Trump wants to be on a ballot I suggest he accelerate court proceedings.

[jfish26]

The 14th Amendment isn't something you are allowed to ignore thru the election of Jeff Davis. If Trump wants to be on a ballot I suggest he accelerate court proceedings.

I agree with you - but this activist Court* will not see it this way, I think.

* More fun with dissonance; conservatives are supposed to be AGAINST activist judges, and yet this Court acts as politically as any in my awareness.

[pdub]

I'd bump that 67% up to closer to 87%.

[jfish26]

I'd bump that 67% up to closer to 87%.

Well sure, that's closer to 10-1!

I wouldn't say you're necessarily wrong, though. What gives me a slight bit of pause is that if we assume the Court is a political animal (it is), and we assume that a generic R nominee would be more likely to beat Biden than Trump (he/she would be), and we assume that the Court does not want to create precedent that deviates from traditional conservative principles of Constitutional interpretation (it doesn't)...then perhaps the Court will see this as an opportunity.

[Shirley]

There are many important issues that voters in a functioning democracy would be discussing in this election year. However, because of the MAGA movement, much of the discourse will be about Trump's criminality.

Mitchell Minute 1779-The Important Issues We Will Not Be Discussing During this Election

[jfish26]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

[twocoach]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

[Shirley]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

I know, right? Anti-American much?

Although I have almost zero faith they will, Democrats should weaponize that and play it on a loop 24/7 between now and Nov 5th.

[Shirley]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Trump Privately Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Border Deal To Deny Biden A Win

Donald Trump on Wednesday privately pressured Senate Republicans to “kill” a bipartisan deal to secure the U.S. border because he doesn’t want President Joe Biden to chalk up a win ahead of the 2024 presidential election, according to a source familiar with the tenuous negotiations on the package.

Trump directly reached out to several GOP senators on Wednesday to tell them to reject any deal, said this source, who requested anonymity to speak freely. The GOP presidential frontrunner also personally reached out to some Senate Republicans over the weekend, the source told HuffPost.

“Trump wants them to kill it because he doesn’t want Biden to have a victory,” said the source. “He told them he will fix the border when he is president… He said he only wants the perfect deal.”

Trump’s meddling generated an “emotional” discussion in a closed door meeting between Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as senators vented their frustrations for hours about the largely secret negotiations over emergency aid for Ukraine, Israel and immigration. The conference is splintering into two camps: those who believe Republicans should take the deal, and those who are opposed at any cost.

“The rational Republicans want the deal because they want Ukraine and Israel and an actual border solution,” said the source. “But the others are afraid of Trump, or they’re the chaos caucus who never wants to pass anything.”

“They’re having a little crisis in their conference right now,” the source added.

[...]

[jfish26]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Sure: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna135626

Inside a special closed-door Republican meeting on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., cast doubt on an emerging deal to tighten immigration laws, citing GOP opposition to its provisions and telling senators that linking the two measures could also sink Ukraine aid.

It represents a marked shift for the top Senate Republican, who has been pushing hard for a bipartisan deal to pass the border legislation and foreign aid bill together through the Democratic-led Senate and the Republican-led House.

“When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us,” McConnell told his fellow Republicans, according to a source familiar with his remarks. “The politics on this have changed.”

The shift comes as Donald Trump, who has pushed congressional GOP members to kill the deal, marches to the Republican presidential nomination and as hard-right Senate Republicans have grown increasingly pointed in their criticism of McConnell.

Trump’s desire to wield chaos at the border as a political weapon against President Joe Biden in a general election campaign is a factor in the ongoing congressional negotiations, with McConnell telling Republicans: “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

“We’re in a quandary," McConnell said, according to the source. The remarks were first reported by Punchbowl.

A second source with knowledge of the meeting confirmed that McConnell told the senators that Trump's position could make it difficult for Republicans to support an immigration deal.

Trump DOES NOT WANT Republican legislators to agree to border legislation that would otherwise be satisfactory to Republican legislators, because Trump wants the problem exacerbated for use as an election cudgel.

[KUTradition]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Sure: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna135626

Inside a special closed-door Republican meeting on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., cast doubt on an emerging deal to tighten immigration laws, citing GOP opposition to its provisions and telling senators that linking the two measures could also sink Ukraine aid.

It represents a marked shift for the top Senate Republican, who has been pushing hard for a bipartisan deal to pass the border legislation and foreign aid bill together through the Democratic-led Senate and the Republican-led House.

“When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us,” McConnell told his fellow Republicans, according to a source familiar with his remarks. “The politics on this have changed.”

The shift comes as Donald Trump, who has pushed congressional GOP members to kill the deal, marches to the Republican presidential nomination and as hard-right Senate Republicans have grown increasingly pointed in their criticism of McConnell.

Trump’s desire to wield chaos at the border as a political weapon against President Joe Biden in a general election campaign is a factor in the ongoing congressional negotiations, with McConnell telling Republicans: “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

“We’re in a quandary," McConnell said, according to the source. The remarks were first reported by Punchbowl.

A second source with knowledge of the meeting confirmed that McConnell told the senators that Trump's position could make it difficult for Republicans to support an immigration deal.

Trump DOES NOT WANT Republican legislators to agree to border legislation that would otherwise be satisfactory to Republican legislators, because Trump wants the problem exacerbated for use as an election cudgel.

i’d be tempted to say they’re damaging their own political futures to lick boots, but i don’t think their constituencies truly care

[twocoach]

Sorta wild Trump is overtly running on a crash-the-economy and maintain-open-borders campaign strategy.

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Trump Privately Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Border Deal To Deny Biden A Win

Donald Trump on Wednesday privately pressured Senate Republicans to “kill” a bipartisan deal to secure the U.S. border because he doesn’t want President Joe Biden to chalk up a win ahead of the 2024 presidential election, according to a source familiar with the tenuous negotiations on the package.

Trump directly reached out to several GOP senators on Wednesday to tell them to reject any deal, said this source, who requested anonymity to speak freely. The GOP presidential frontrunner also personally reached out to some Senate Republicans over the weekend, the source told HuffPost.

“Trump wants them to kill it because he doesn’t want Biden to have a victory,” said the source. “He told them he will fix the border when he is president… He said he only wants the perfect deal.”

Trump’s meddling generated an “emotional” discussion in a closed door meeting between Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as senators vented their frustrations for hours about the largely secret negotiations over emergency aid for Ukraine, Israel and immigration. The conference is splintering into two camps: those who believe Republicans should take the deal, and those who are opposed at any cost.

“The rational Republicans want the deal because they want Ukraine and Israel and an actual border solution,” said the source. “But the others are afraid of Trump, or they’re the chaos caucus who never wants to pass anything.”

“They’re having a little crisis in their conference right now,” the source added.

[...]

I'd say that wanting Biden not to get any credit for making progress on the border is distinctly different than having an open border policy. I don't think anyone in their right mind would say that if Trump was elected that he would be pushing for open borders.

[twocoach]

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Sure: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congre ... rcna135626

Inside a special closed-door Republican meeting on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., cast doubt on an emerging deal to tighten immigration laws, citing GOP opposition to its provisions and telling senators that linking the two measures could also sink Ukraine aid.

It represents a marked shift for the top Senate Republican, who has been pushing hard for a bipartisan deal to pass the border legislation and foreign aid bill together through the Democratic-led Senate and the Republican-led House.

“When we started this, the border united us and Ukraine divided us,” McConnell told his fellow Republicans, according to a source familiar with his remarks. “The politics on this have changed.”

The shift comes as Donald Trump, who has pushed congressional GOP members to kill the deal, marches to the Republican presidential nomination and as hard-right Senate Republicans have grown increasingly pointed in their criticism of McConnell.

Trump’s desire to wield chaos at the border as a political weapon against President Joe Biden in a general election campaign is a factor in the ongoing congressional negotiations, with McConnell telling Republicans: “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

“We’re in a quandary," McConnell said, according to the source. The remarks were first reported by Punchbowl.

A second source with knowledge of the meeting confirmed that McConnell told the senators that Trump's position could make it difficult for Republicans to support an immigration deal.

Trump DOES NOT WANT Republican legislators to agree to border legislation that would otherwise be satisfactory to Republican legislators, because Trump wants the problem exacerbated for use as an election cudgel.

i’d be tempted to say they’re damaging their own political futures to lick boots, but i don’t think their constituencies truly care

The GOP and Trump supporters are at "I don't give a shit what we have to do to win, I just want a win" mode.

[Sparko]

They actually do want to open borders to the right religious zealot nut factions of pale complexion.

[jfish26]

You may need to provide more details as to why you feel Trump is running on a "maintain-open-borders" campaign. Not sure that aligns with anything I have seen.

Trump Privately Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Border Deal To Deny Biden A Win

Donald Trump on Wednesday privately pressured Senate Republicans to “kill” a bipartisan deal to secure the U.S. border because he doesn’t want President Joe Biden to chalk up a win ahead of the 2024 presidential election, according to a source familiar with the tenuous negotiations on the package.

Trump directly reached out to several GOP senators on Wednesday to tell them to reject any deal, said this source, who requested anonymity to speak freely. The GOP presidential frontrunner also personally reached out to some Senate Republicans over the weekend, the source told HuffPost.

“Trump wants them to kill it because he doesn’t want Biden to have a victory,” said the source. “He told them he will fix the border when he is president… He said he only wants the perfect deal.”

Trump’s meddling generated an “emotional” discussion in a closed door meeting between Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as senators vented their frustrations for hours about the largely secret negotiations over emergency aid for Ukraine, Israel and immigration. The conference is splintering into two camps: those who believe Republicans should take the deal, and those who are opposed at any cost.

“The rational Republicans want the deal because they want Ukraine and Israel and an actual border solution,” said the source. “But the others are afraid of Trump, or they’re the chaos caucus who never wants to pass anything.”

“They’re having a little crisis in their conference right now,” the source added.

[...]

I'd say that wanting Biden not to get any credit for making progress on the border is distinctly different than having an open border policy.

Isn't this a distinction without a substantive difference?

We all agree that there is an immediate need for stronger border legislation.

There appears to be a signature-ready, bipartisan deal for stronger border legislation.

If Trump uses his power over the GOP to prevent the passage of stronger border legislation for electoral purposes, isn't the result that at least 12 months will go by without the passage of stronger border legislation?

[Cassandra]

Odds of Trump getting left off the ballet? lol. About the odds of Kyle Rittenhouse going to jail for doing nothing wrong.