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Re: who ya got?

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:38 pm
by Mjl
jfish26 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:56 pm
Mjl wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:48 pm Time for predictions/SWAGs?

I say Biden is down end of Tuesday night with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania still undecided, but with Biden down a decent amount in both. Thursday he passes Trump in Wisconsin to seal the deal with this map (if PA ends up staying Trump)

Image
I don't think it will end up being that close.

While the media is rightly not counting any chickens, the math is just too difficult for Trump.

If the polls are off as much as they were in 2016...then Biden would end up at 315 votes or something.

Trump effectively needs an inside straight; any pair, or perhaps even a good high card, would do it for Biden.
It's actually way more than that, because you have to adjust both ways then, and Trump performed worse in Texas and Arizona than the polls indicated.

Adjusting the polls based on 2016 results, using the RCP average of polls, Trump wins NC, IA, OH and WI, but Biden wins GA, AZ, TX, PA, MI and FL. So, 364 for Biden.

My expectations are lower because of mail in votes being discarded due to signature mismatches and not getting in on time.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:49 pm
by ousdahl
Even more than dividing the country, I think the best and most uniting thing we could do for our country is to just get money out of politics. So much of the rest would then work itself out

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:50 pm
by ousdahl
We could do a lot with media reform too.

Wasn’t it Reagan who relaxed the standards of truth and fairness in journalism?

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:18 pm
by Sparko
Yes. A lot of where we are started under Reagan. Including having the Iranians hold onto the hostages to help his election.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:03 am
by Walrus
Here is what you can expect when this is all said and done.

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Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:06 am
by jfish26
Does that say “Fox Voter Analysis 2018?”

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:10 am
by sdoyel
Lol

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:37 am
by Cascadia
jfish26 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:06 am Does that say “Fox Voter Analysis 2018?”
Lobster doesn’t care about facts, bro

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:05 am
by jfish26
Cascadia wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:37 am
jfish26 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:06 am Does that say “Fox Voter Analysis 2018?”
Lobster doesn’t care about facts, bro
It would be quite lobby for that map to be based on pre-impeachment Fox polls, using turnout rates implied by 2020 early voting rates.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:01 pm
by Sparko
The danger of the Lobster polls is that they mislead purposely violent extremists. Like trying to upend a political rally bus on I-35. Dangerous morons.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:15 pm
by sdoyel

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:17 pm
by sdoyel
That is terrorism by the way.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:20 pm
by sdoyel

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:35 pm
by sdoyel
I was having a conversation with my wife today about these MAGA nut jobs. I don’t get it. How did these people come to be and what do they think is in it for them? The pickup driving, gun toting, bull testicle dangling from the tow hitch folks... Trump doesn’t care about you.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm
by Deleted User 289
Trump's "very fine people"!
Any good reason why the bus didn't have a police escort when most people with a brain in their head would know this would probably happen?
P.S. I really hope someone has the owner/driver of the black truck's name - and the fucker gets nailed.
Except let's be real, the owner/driver of the black truck is probably a Texas Sheriff or a Judge.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:52 pm
by Deleted User 289
This is UNFUCKING BELIEVABLE! Yet, it's completely believable.
If there is a God, he (Trump - not God) would drop dead before the election.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8624932869

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:56 pm
by sdoyel
Grandma wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm Trump's "very fine people"!
Any good reason why the bus didn't have a police escort when most people with a brain in their head would know this would probably happen?
P.S. I really hope someone has the owner/driver of the black truck's name - and the fucker gets nailed.
Except let's be real, the owner/driver of the black truck is probably a Texas Sheriff or a Judge.
From what I understand there was “some” law enforcement present and they got overtaken by the bull testicle pickups.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:23 pm
by Deleted User 289
sdoyel wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:56 pm
Grandma wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:37 pm Trump's "very fine people"!
Any good reason why the bus didn't have a police escort when most people with a brain in their head would know this would probably happen?
P.S. I really hope someone has the owner/driver of the black truck's name - and the fucker gets nailed.
Except let's be real, the owner/driver of the black truck is probably a Texas Sheriff or a Judge.
From what I understand there was “some” law enforcement present and they got overtaken by the bull testicle pickups.
Two things...
In hindsight it seems the other vehicle went in the the black truck's lane. Still doesn't mean he/she had to try and side swipe the other vehicle.
If there was law enforcement present, then as I alluded to in terms of the black truck - they probably got off on it and were happy it was happening.

I hope people realize that there is a really good chance that by next weekend we will see the most violence this country has seen in a very long time. Regardless of who wins and who loses.

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:23 am
by ousdahl

Re: who ya got?

Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:50 pm
by sdoyel