Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Walrus]

I see two competing trends; massive dislocation due to the pandemic economy is possible. But people are valuing that home space dearly based on the pandemic’s lingering impact. Tiny houses don’t excite me right now.

It's already happening. Some people are buying those cheap homes in rural areas and small town communities. You are exactly right in the your second sentence. Lots of people trying to get away from the social unrest and covid, which is a problem in the high density cities. There are at least a half dozen reasons why big cities will see big declines, but again, not overnight. Any potential buyers will wait and not want "catch a falling knife" so to speak.

[chiknbut]

You were still wrong about 2019 and won't admit it.

[ousdahl]

He’s still wrong about a lot and won’t admit it.

[twocoach]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/success/ ... index.html

lol.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029373327

"US home prices will fall 6.6% over the next year as COVID-19 fallout worsens, report says"

6.6% isn't exactly a bubble bursting.

[Deleted User 310]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/success/ ... index.html

lol.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029373327

"US home prices will fall 6.6% over the next year as COVID-19 fallout worsens, report says"

6.6% isn't exactly a bubble bursting.

If that is factoring in the entire country and not just the "cyclical markets" that he has mentioned then i think that does sort of qualify as a bubble bursting since it is over a 12month period. I havent read the article yet so i am not sure how they come up with the forecast.

[twocoach]

"The group predicts that its Home Price Index will slump as much as 6.6% in the 12 months through May 2021, marking the first annual decline since February 2012, as the market grapples with the pandemic recession that began in February. "

Saying "as much as" is the key. They arent predicting a 6.6% drop. They are predicting 6.6% to be the far end of the drop. It's like saying "you can save as much as 100%" or "lose as much as 100 pounds". That shouldn't be the expected result.

The headline writer just chose to take the phrase "as much as" out of the actual statement to make the headline more appealing for exactly what Lobster did here. Simple manipulation of data.

[Walrus]

Some of you guys need to read my posts a few times. I already said my timing was wrong, but I am not wrong in that it is happening. 6.6% is a good drop for one year, but again, it could be much worse. Furthermore, the type of decline I'm talking about happens over 3-5 years. Housing doesn't drop in free fall speed.

[PhDhawk]

Guys, did you know that remodeling your kitchen can greatly improve the value of your home to potential buyers? I mean, by even more than the cost of the remodel itself.

[twocoach]

Some of you guys need to read my posts a few times. I already said my timing was wrong, but I am not wrong in that it is happening. 6.6% is a good drop for one year, but again, it could be much worse. Furthermore, the type of decline I'm talking about happens over 3-5 years. Housing doesn't drop in free fall speed.

If you throw enough darts, eventually you'll hit the board.

[Walrus]

If that is factoring in the entire country and not just the "cyclical markets" that he has mentioned then i think that does sort of qualify as a bubble bursting since it is over a 12month period. I havent read the article yet so i am not sure how they come up with the forecast.

Last time it happened, places like Orange County and the San Fernando Valley saw home prices drop 40-50% from 2008 to 2009. Most likely, that's not going to happen this time. I think we will see a slower decline over many years. As our cyclical markets become more like Japan's, I think the days of people buying and flipping homes in the cyclical markets might be over for a long time. However, investing for cash flow is an entirely different story, and that can be a good option if investing in a linear market like KC.

[PhDhawk]

for years realtors would tell you to bake cookies during an open house. Now it's the opposite, it just comes off as a sales gimmick. Don't do it guys! I'm warning you! There's no reason to bake cookies at an open house. You'll thank me later when I save you thousands of dollars.

[Walrus]

Speaking of trolls...

[PhDhawk]

One thing potential buyers love is storage/closet space. If you're thinking of reselling your home, I'm warning you, you might want to consider adding storage space. An extra closet or upgrading to a walk-in closet could net you A LOT of extra money. You'll thank me later.

[jhawks99]

Spend your money in kitchens and onsweets. And giant clocks on the wall.

[PhDhawk]

Spend your money in kitchens and onsweets. And giant clocks on the wall.

We had a giant wall clock. We ordered it online. It had Roman numerals. Roman Numeral 4 (IV) was IIII. We didn't notice it for months. Now, I'm obsessed with looking at clocks with Roman numerals to see how the 4 looks. I'd estimate that at least 40% of them have IIII instead of IV, which is crazy to me.

[Walrus]

Keith was just one of many people warning about this in 2019. If people are curious, this is the video I would start with to explain what has been going on in places like California.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c

[Walrus]

*Walrus did something wrong*

[twocoach]

FYI, Jeep was bragging about selling his condo and making a 94K profit, but I...

That doesn't show that at all.

[chiknbut]

FYI, Jeep was bragging about selling his condo and making a 94K profit, but I...

Reported.

[Deleted User 62]

Just wanted to drop this off and leave it here for your village idiot:

https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/amp/P ... 465153.php