Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[DeletedUser]

One thought, a lot of homes are built by small businesses, folks like comrade Defix. For a small business there is less risk in building one $2.5M home under contract than there is building 25 spec homes for $100k each. There are 25X as many things that can get fucked up and cost them money. It's the same calculus that makes me prefer working on a $175M project for Zygi Wilf than a housing project for the KCMO Housing Authority. I have comrades who depend on the paycheck I sign every two weeks to feed their families and pay their mortgages.

And as pointed out, most housing policy changes in the last decade or two have been geared towards reducing the cost and risk for the lower end of the market.

As a builder you also can't get financing for 25 spec homes, or at the very least it's more difficult and at a higher rate to reflect the enhanced risk of speculative building.

[japhy]

One thought, a lot of homes are built by small businesses, folks like comrade Defix. For a small business there is less risk in building one $2.5M home under contract than there is building 25 spec homes for $100k each. There are 25X as many things that can get fucked up and cost them money. It's the same calculus that makes me prefer working on a $175M project for Zygi Wilf than a housing project for the KCMO Housing Authority. I have comrades who depend on the paycheck I sign every two weeks to feed their families and pay their mortgages.

And as pointed out, most housing policy changes in the last decade or two have been geared towards reducing the cost and risk for the lower end of the market.

As a builder you also can't get financing for 25 spec homes, or at the very least it's more difficult and at a higher rate to reflect the enhanced risk of speculative building.

When the Comrades of the Revolution take over the banks they will fix that. Viva la Revolucion!

[ousdahl]

Which "US policies" are you referring to?

Whichever policies have created this much housing insecurity in the otherwise wealthiest and most resource-abundant nation in the history of history?

Like many other things, "housing" tends to cycle, some people think on an ~ 18 year basis. (You can look it up!)

The cycle is a combination of market forces and government policies. You put the blame on "US policies", but apparently have no idea what "policies" you mean, other than "government bad!*". That's intellectually lazy.



*Who knew you were a deeply closeted Reaganite?

(Although that does explain a number of things...)

Might have to respond to more in this thread later when I have more time. But for now, holy shit this post.

The “intellectually lazy” part here is you trying to put some “government bad” words in my mouth. If I did say that, please go ahead and quote me where I did. If not, then please realize this is you just going for yet another gaslight.

(Spoiler alert! You can’t quote that cuz I never said it!)

If anything, I think government is good, as long as government is enacting policies that actually help the working class and people at large, rather than government mostly just serving the interests of capital.

Now, fuck Reagan! Good and hard! I cannot stress that enough! He’s one of the biggest stains on this nation, and so much has gone to shit since.

I’m tempted to even suggest that you, Shirley, have FAR more in Reagan at this point than I do. But I’m concerned that might be a little gaslighty in itself, which, of course, would make me no better than you.

For real, if you want to insult me, try to keep it more vague, and just go for some sophomoric zinger like I’m talking out of my ass or something.

[DeletedUser]

So, which policies exactly are we talking about?

[KUTradition]

you know, the ones that facilitate the big bad gov’t getting one over on q

those ones

[ousdahl]

Maybe it’s the lack of policies, then?

Awful funny of you guys to mock housing insecurity tho. It’s hilarious. Belly laughs all around.

[japhy]

Awful funny of you guys to mock housing insecurity tho.

Is that your new moniker, Comrade Housing Insecurity?

[ousdahl]

And yet, if I did post here about any “effort” toward anything, tdub would whine about that too.

It’s also pretty cynical or something to imply I need to point to some specific “policies” to convince you guys that maybe the housing situation and homelessness in this country is a little fucked up.

There's that word again, "effort".

I have given you examples of what has been done in Pagosa Springs, in Salida and now we are working towards something in the Tartarian Empire. Explain to me why those models don't apply to the Frasier valley? What efforts have you and the comrades made to try and copy proven models for bringing affordable housing to Colorado?

I don’t recall the examples from Pagosa or Salida off the top of my head, but if they were able to come up with policies that mitigate housing insecurity, good for them.

Yes, they just might apply in Fraser too.

The prob is, I don’t have comrades. I’m a loner who is crippled by anxiety and depression, and can barely keep my own life together, let alone organize on behalf of an entire community.

Is that a good answer?

Meh who cares.

Now quick, go mock me in the tinder thread some more!

[ousdahl]

Awful funny of you guys to mock housing insecurity tho.

Is that your new moniker, Comrade Housing Insecurity?

If I organize a protest in Fraser to speak up about housing insecurity, you gonna come?

You’re welcome to crash on my floor space btw.

[japhy]

The prob is, I don’t have comrades. I’m a loner who is crippled by anxiety and depression, and can barely keep my own life together, let alone organize on behalf of an entire community.

Is that a good answer?

It sounds honest, that's a good start for real conversation.

[TDub]

ah so we've come to the poor me portion of the spiral? I'm trying to follow along in the handbook.

[japhy]

If I organize a protest in Fraser to speak up about housing insecurity, you gonna come?

Hell no, I have already staked my claim to affordable/equitable Colorado and started work on making a difference where I feel it is most needed. The Empire is the poorest place in Colorado.

Defix offered to loan you a hammer a few pages back and I'm pretty sure he can teach you how to use it. We aren't loners and we have comrades. I have introduced you to some of them. You wouldn't live in a rich dude's posh basement in the Empire, but you also won't have anyone asking you to clean their hot tub either.

The ball, as always, is in your court.

[ousdahl]

Wall Street Has Spent Billions Buying Homes. A Crackdown Is Looming.

Lawmakers say investors that scooped up hundreds of thousands of houses to rent out are driving up home prices

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/wall-st ... g-f85ae5f6

[Overlander]

If I organize a protest in Fraser to speak up about housing insecurity, you gonna come?

Hell no, I have already staked my claim to affordable/equitable Colorado and started work on making a difference where I feel it is most needed. The Empire is the poorest place in Colorado.

Defix offered to loan you a hammer a few pages back and I'm pretty sure he can teach you how to use it. We aren't loners and we have comrades. I have introduced you to some of them. You wouldn't live in a rich dude's posh basement in the Empire, but you also won't have anyone asking you to clean their hot tub either.

The ball, as always, is in your court.

Ouch

[DeletedUser]

If I organize a protest in Fraser to speak up about housing insecurity, you gonna come?

Hell no, I have already staked my claim to affordable/equitable Colorado and started work on making a difference where I feel it is most needed. The Empire is the poorest place in Colorado.

Defix offered to loan you a hammer a few pages back and I'm pretty sure he can teach you how to use it. We aren't loners and we have comrades. I have introduced you to some of them. You wouldn't live in a rich dude's posh basement in the Empire, but you also won't have anyone asking you to clean their hot tub either.

The ball, as always, is in your court.

Ouch

This is the most puzzling piece of it all.

He has 3 (or more), fairly successful guys (from what I gather), willing to help improve his financial situation for no benefit of their own, improve his real life, and he passes it up. Crazy to me.

I'd be begging for jobs with one of you guys. Well, as long as I could golf every Wednesday.




.....but, something tell me you're all willing to work a little harder than he is. And so I am not sure how long he'd last. Maybe he knows that, and that's why he passes up the offers.

[KUTradition]

it’s always easier to be a message board-_________, than it is to do so in real life

[Shirley]

it’s always easier to be a message board-_________, than it is to do so in real life

^^^

“It is always easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them.”
Alfre Adler

[japhy]

So I gets an invite to an electronic/noise music get together out in the desert. The only person I barely know is the hostess, who lives in a place called the "Dusty Den" which is the name of the "by invite only" location.

I find myself on the Island of Misfit Toys.

But they are a supportive and ambitious lot. There is a 30 year old belly dancer working with a double sided ax that her boyfriend bought when he was 15 and was obsessed with D&D. There is a grill set up and everyone brought something for a potluck dinner. There is a noise music performance that includes a sample of their neighbor on the radio extolling the virtues of Alamosa Colorado as an outdoor playground. The Dusty Den is covered in Christmas lights and it is a joyful happy crowd. Every weekend is Tiny Tim's Christmas out here.

I meet some of them who have taken over the little town of Del Norte. Oddly some of them are from Kansas City and used to teach at KC Art Institute. They couldn't make ends meet on a teaching salary at one of the country's most prestigious art schools in the "big city" and so loaded their wagons and moved out west several years ago. They pooled their resources and started buying small houses. The population of the valley is aging. A lot of boomers who owned houses for decades and did little to nothing to repair or update them. They can't, or won't, get loans to do the updates/repairs since it would cost more than the market value of the home when done. So this small intrepid band of yutes has been quietly buying them up and updating them and reselling at a profit. They have upgraded the housing in the town and built wealth among themselves and the people who now own the homes and live there. As the town turned around other young folks started small businesses in town and upscaled the local economy. I went into one of these businesses, a seemingly specialty business to get a beer. They sell only craft beers and vinyl records. My assumption being that it catered to the local hipsters who have been renovating the town or were cruising through town soon their way to Telluride. The first customer that comes in after me pulls up in his pickup with cattle trailer behind it. The 20 something cowboy walks in and spends about 5 minutes discussing different craft beers with the bartender who has immigrated from Detroit. Cowboy buys a beer and sits and listens to music on the sound system. In the meantime the kid from Detroit sits down and we talk about his new life in the Empire and music and business. He tells me that their average customer is a 20-30 something local cowboy. Not wut I expected.

I was told at the party that they are running out of affordable/rundown housing stock in Del Norte. We are talking about structures that are sold for under $75K and in need of major repairs. They will soon be looking for new opportunities. They will be coming to Center for Solstice. I have a feeling they will like what they see.

Capitalism seems to be working for those who are ambitious and willing to take a risk out in the Empire. Opportunity always presents itself as risk, and there is lots of hard labor involved. I think these young folks will do just fine out here.