OFFICIAL MELTDOWN THREAD

[Deleted User 863]

I trust us to win close games offensively. I do not trust us to win games defensively.

[NDballer13]

Frankly, we're not built well for close games at all. Do you trust this team to get a stop? I do not.

I don't trust them to get stops, but our close games/game winners this year shows we are able to make plays on the other end that a lot of teams can't, so it becomes kind of a wash.

But yes, we need to be scoring in high 70's at a very minimum. This is a Mahomes-chiefs catch us if you can team that gets in big time jeopardy in the games we don't turn it up. Bill/players allowing TCU to dictate the physicality/grind just can't happen--they are a 7-10 seed type team.

For as good as the offense is, I have more faith in getting a stop in the final minute than I do someone stepping up and hitting 2 free throws.

[Deleted User 863]

We can win slower paced games but only if we shoot well.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Frankly, we're not built well for close games at all. Do you trust this team to get a stop? I do not.

I don't trust them to get stops, but our close games/game winners this year shows we are able to make plays on the other end that a lot of teams can't, so it becomes kind of a wash.

But yes, we need to be scoring in high 70's at a very minimum. This is a Mahomes-chiefs catch us if you can team that gets in big time jeopardy in the games we don't turn it up. Bill/players allowing TCU to dictate the physicality/grind just can't happen--they are a 7-10 seed type team.

For as good as the offense is, I have more faith in getting a stop in the final minute than I do someone stepping up and hitting 2 free throws.

Like my man Coach Cal always says, we'll make 'em when they count.

[Qusdahl]

This is our fourth year straight of small ball with no shooters.

We can still compete in small ball with no shooters if we have AA-type athletes at the 1 and 5, but now the 1 and 5 are this team’s weakest links.

[CrimsonNBlue]

We can win slower paced games but only if we shoot well.

50% against Dayton
45% against Tech
58% against Texas

This team's magic number is like 78 to 79.

[CrimsonNBlue]

This is our fourth year straight of small ball with no shooters.

We can still compete in small ball with no shooters if we have AA-type athletes at the 1 and 5, but now the 1 and 5 are this team’s weakest links.

JCL 44%
Och 43%
Remy 38%
CB 36%
Jalen 28% despite early slump

They are all better shooting in transition, so the offense can get bogged down in the halfcourt when we have Bad Dave. But, that just tells you to play to our strengths.

[jfish26]

We can win slower paced games but only if we shoot well.

50% against Dayton
45% against Tech
58% against Texas

This team's magic number is like 78 to 79.

Our losses:

73-74 (Dayton)
67-75 (Tech)
62-80 (Kentucky)
76-79 (Texas)
70-80 (Baylor)
64-74 (TCU)

So, never lost scoring more than 76.

Conversely...we've only won seven games in which we've scored less than 76.

(There's a math trick in here: we have won twice scoring exactly 76.)

[CrimsonNBlue]

So if I am reading this correctly,

When we score 75 or less, we are 7-5.

When we score 76, we are 2-1.

When we score 77 or more, we are 14-0.


Knowing that our scoring average is 79.1.

If we scored at least 75 in every game: 2 less losses.

If we scored at least 76 in every game: 3 less losses

If we scored at least 80 in every game: 4 less losses

If we scored at least 81 in every game: 6 less losses (undefeated)


So, just score our average and we are the #1 overall seed.

[jfish26]

So if I am reading this correctly,

When we score 75 or less, we are 7-5.

When we score 76, we are 2-1.

When we score 77 or more, we are 14-0.


Knowing that our scoring average is 79.1.

If we scored at least 75 in every game: 2 less losses.

If we scored at least 76 in every game: 3 less losses

If we scored at least 80 in every game: 4 less losses

If we scored at least 81 in every game: 6 less losses (undefeated)


So, just score our average and we are the #1 overall seed.

Which is the issue. This team spends more time closer to its floor than a true contender should.

[Qusdahl]

How many true contenders have all of one true pg, with back to back goose eggs, and hasn’t been to the line in a month?

Or all of one true big man, and a mercurial one at that, who can barely move right now?

Those numbers are good analysis. But the eye test just doesn’t bode well.

And maybe the biggest bummer is, this is the exact same guys we went thru this shit with last year! Like after last season’s struggles and historically bad finish, our top 6 guys in terms of minites are the exact same.

And after all the scapegoating we did of Marcus Garrett, and how we needed more production from the PG, we went and replaced him with….Dajuan.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Good to have ousdahl back.

This is actually a really different team from last season.

Floor is about the same, but ceiling is much higher.

[pdub]

"Or all of one true big man, and a mercurial one at that, who can barely move right now?"

Baylor lost one of their bigs.
And their other big has worse stats than our mercurial one.
UCLA's big is also worse if you think UCLA is a contender.

[pdub]

The difference is the massive improvement of Ochai and the large improvement of Braun.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Granted, he hasn't shot well in the last 2-3 games, but I would buy that Dave has actually been a better version of himself this season than last, injury excepted, meaning this is the best Dave has ever been.

50% from the field and one of the best offensive rebounders in the country? That is good for this team and, outside of some Ochai-like awakening, you're not going to get more than that out of him. The Good Dave/Bad Dave back-and-forth thing is just who he is at this point.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Dave:

Defensive rebound%: 16.7 to 19.3

Offensive rebound % improvement: 13.0 to 20.3!

The shooting is pretty much the same, the only negative is that he isn't as good of a FT shooter percentage-wise. But consider, he averaged over 10 shots/game last season and averages 7 shots/game this season: he had 103 FT attempts in 29 games last, and has 106 FT attempts in 29 games this season. I'll take that.

[jfish26]

The difference is the massive improvement of Ochai and the large improvement of Braun.

Obviously the "not panicking" response to last night is: of fucking course we'll lose to a tournament-quality team if our two best players suck.

[Mjl]

there were so many bigger issues than pg play last night

1. Guarding players driving to the basket
2. Rebounding
3. Ochai going 4-17
4. No threat from our starting point guard

Exactly

[CrimsonNBlue]

It's fine to talk about issues in the context of the season.

Och missing shots has not been an issue. In fact, I'd much rather see him go 4-17 than 1-6--We're riding or dying with him at this point. Och putting his shots up is not an issue.

Rebounding has not been an issue. It was last night for one game, but it looked like Dave's injury was a factor there.

Staying in front of players has been an issue all season--we need to get better there every game.

Dajuan's lack of production has become an issue. It's ok to bring it up.

[jfish26]

It's fine to talk about issues in the context of the season.

Och missing shots has not been an issue. In fact, I'd much rather see him go 4-17 than 1-6--We're riding or dying with him at this point. Och putting his shots up is not an issue.

Rebounding has not been an issue. It was last night for one game, but it looked like Dave's injury was a factor there.

Staying in front of players has been an issue all season--we need to get better there every game.

Dajuan's lack of production has become an issue. It's ok to bring it up.

It’s also true that - even though I’m very much Team These Dudes Are in Perfect Shape - there could not be a worse time for back to back three game weeks.

I wish we could just punt the Big 12 tournament, but we probably need two wins there to have a shot at a 1.