Texas (+4.5) @ Kansas

[CrimsonNBlue]

Probably the first or second best guard unit in the league. Dajuan has to bounce back.

They are also long and athletic so defensive rebounding will be huge.

Spread seems high, but the building gives us a shot.

[NewtonHawk11]

Starting to turn a bit pessimistic. Just think this conference is tough. I think this is the best team in the league. They don't shoot particularly well, but neither did TCU before they came to Allen and shot 50% from 3. But they are athletic as hell and will be tough on all levels.

The building is the only real chance that KU has, I think.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Texas looked like the best team in the country pre-choke (literal choke).

[ousdahl]

kinda feels like so much of the rest of our season hinges on tonight

[CrimsonNBlue]

kinda feels like so much of the rest of our season hinges on tonight

Our chances at the league crown might end tonight, but otherwise, we're going to end up where most thought we would be: that 2 seed line, maybe 3 if things go further south. Get a good draw and who knows?

[CrimsonNBlue]

With a Matchup Quality of 97.7 (fifth best this season), tonight's clash between Texas and Kansas (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) is one you won't want to miss. Two of the top teams in men's college basketball all season long, the Longhorns and Jayhawks are currently ranked sixth and 13th, respectively, by ESPN Analytics' BPI. Both have performed well despite difficult schedules, earning Kansas the No. 3 spot and Texas the No. 4 in our strength of record metric.

The similarities don't stop there. In the preseason, BPI had Texas as the second-best team in the country and Kansas at 13th. Both have been highly efficient on offense and defense, and they're two of just 14 teams BPI gives more than a 1% chance to win it all on April 3. Neither has dropped below 12th in the AP poll at any point this season. Even their pace is within a half possession of each other.

So what could make the difference in their matchup?

Turnovers are first. Texas has forced them on 22.6% of its opponents' possessions, good for 35th among Division I teams. Its offense has excelled at capitalizing on those turnovers, as highlighted by its 1.16 points per possession on transition plays, according to Synergy Sports, also ranking 35th. When forcing at least 15 turnovers this season, the Longhorns have gone 14-1. When forcing fewer than 15, they're just 5-3.

This is bad news for Kansas, which coughs up a turnover on 17.8% of its possessions (135th in Division I) and is subsequently slow to get back on defense. Teams average 1.2 points per turnover against the Jayhawks, 272nd in Division I. The number 15 could be a breaking point: Kansas has given up 15 turnovers in only five games this season, and is 1-4 in those games and 17-1 otherwise.

The second key comes down to play style and assists. As shown by Synergy Sports' play type tracking, the Jayhawks can push opponents away from team basketball and into more one-on-one situations. They force isolations at the sixth-highest rate, and pick-and-rolls without a pass more than usual (102nd), in Division I. Conversely, they allow assist-friendly spot-up plays (where the possession ends with either a catch and shoot or catch and drive) less often than 316 other Division I teams.

Of particular use against Texas will be forcing pick-and-roll plays to stay with the ball handler, and avoiding spot-ups. The Longhorns rank 311th in points per possession when the ball handler keeps it, versus 55th when the ball gets to the roll man. On spot-up plays, they rank 125th.

On offense, Kansas capitalizes on spreading the ball around, ranking 14th in assist percentage. Taking advantage of this against Texas will be important, which ranks just 106th in assist percentage allowed. On the season, the Jayhawks are 18-1 when they have more assists than their opponent, and 0-4 when they don't.

For the winner, this will be a statement game in the grapple for a potential No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. For the fans, it should be a fantastic game featuring two of the best teams in men's college basketball.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... as-2022-23

[jfish26]

All eyes on Dajuan. You don’t get to be the folk hero pass-first PG and run a team that turns it over more than it scores.

[CrimsonNBlue]

I think Dajuan and the team cleans it up. Dajuan averages 1 more TO per game on the road than at home. Hunter and Carr are great on defense, though.

But need Jalen to stay hot as they'll likely have a guy that can match him on height and athleticism.

And then the aforementioned rebounding battle. We are down to just Udeh and Cam if KJ gets in foul trouble. Yikes.

[NewtonHawk11]

And Cam hasn't suited up for a few weeks too.

[ousdahl]

kinda feels like so much of the rest of our season hinges on tonight

Our chances at the league crown might end tonight, but otherwise, we're going to end up where most thought we would be: that 2 seed line, maybe 3 if things go further south. Get a good draw and who knows?

Just qualitatively for me as a fan, tonight determines whether we’re the kind of team who can get back up after getting punched, bounce back after a loss, hold serve at home, and beat a top team thus displaying we’re a top team too; or whether we’re the kind of team who is gonna stumble thru the rest of the season, not compete for the conference, and likely get our asses kicked by the first good team we encounter in the tourney.

Lot of season left either way.

[CrimsonNBlue]

This team or Tennessee is the best team we've played all season.

But, the way this league is unfolding and the oddsmakers are having me think we will win a close one.

Will need at least mid 20's from Jalen. Obviously Gradey needs to soften the blow of the freshman wall.

[ousdahl]

Yea, we need:

- AA Jalen
- Gradey’s jumpers falling
- KJ less foul trouble and more production
- double double not too much to ask from Mc
- Dajuan take care of the ball, and maybe even get a few points on the bored too
- bench not look completely lost

That’s all to say, yea, this team not much margin for error, but we can do it

[CrimsonNBlue]

For as much praise as KJ deservedly gets on defense, mostly on the perimeter, he picks up a cheap foul or two in the paint every game it seems. Probably answered my own question as he is out of his position and weight class down there. Need Udeh to shine tonight.

[surly]

this feels like a conference title decider if texas wins in afh tonight. awful home loss by the cats saturday.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Spread is actually widening.

Hawks win tonight.

[Deleted User 863]

Spread is actually widening.

I am so confused by our lines lately.

[NewtonHawk11]

9 scholarship players tonight.

And one of those is Cam Martin. Lol.

[NewtonHawk11]

9 scholarship players tonight.

And one of those is Cam Martin. Lol.

SIKE! Cam ain’t playing. We got 8 healthy schollies tonight.

[Shirley]

Nice start.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Dajuan starting out great. And we're getting out and running.

We'll see how we hold up with the small roster tonight.