Chiefs 2023

[pdub]

v Lions - W
@ Jags - 50/50
v Bears - W
@ Jets - 50/50
@ Vikes - W
v Broncos - W
v Chargers - 60/40
@ Broncos - W
v Dolphins - 60/40
BYE
v Eagles - 50/50
@ Raiders - W
@ Packers - W
v Bills - 60/40
@ Pats - W
v Raiders - W
v Bengals - 50/50
@ Chargers - 50/50

13-4.
First half lighter than the 2nd half. Probably need to get to the bye with a max of two losses if we want to be competing for the 1 AFC seed. I could see us going 8-1 before the bye.

[NewtonHawk11]

Yeah I think 13-4 is accurate. It's probably been an easier schedule in terms of overall strength than what they've had in the past. They have a few really difficult matchups, but most of those are at home this year (Philly, Buffalo, Bengals)

[jhawks99]

Should be in Minn for Chefs at Vikes

[pdub]

The only team Mahomes hasn't beaten.

[NewtonHawk11]

The only team Mahomes hasn't beaten.

Because he hasn't played them. Just wild. Hopefully he'll stick with wins against 31 teams in the NFL, and the only remaining team will be the Chiefs because he stays here forever.

[pdub]

OK, so give the all the Chiefs two helmets and have them play each other - i.e. no one ever leaves the field.

Would you defer if you were Chiefs Team A?

[Sparko]

The only team Mahomes hasn't beaten.

Because he hasn't played them. Just wild. Hopefully he'll stick with wins against 31 teams in the NFL, and the only remaining team will be the Chiefs because he stays here forever.

One of those Matt Moore asterisk games. Tyreek went off and the Chiefs won with the Mahomes backup. So. Meh on that stat.

[pdub]

"The Chiefs also face quite the gauntlet of a schedule in the regular season -- second toughest in the league, according to FPI..."

The toughest?
The Patriots.
Would 7-10 have Bill on the hot seat?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/376 ... yoff-draft

[twocoach]

"The Chiefs also face quite the gauntlet of a schedule in the regular season -- second toughest in the league, according to FPI..."

The toughest?
The Patriots.
Would 7-10 have Bill on the hot seat?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/376 ... yoff-draft

Meh, in the preseason last year, the Chiefs had the "toughest" schedule based on the previous season's results but it didn't end up working out to be the toughest schedule at all.

[pdub]

"Everyone knows measuring strength of schedule by the previous season's win percentage is deeply flawed. The Bengals are certainly a more formidable opponent than the Vikings, for example, even though Minnesota won more games last year. Using the FPI, we can get much closer to a true measure of schedule strength because it's looking at opponents based on their forecasted strength."

[twocoach]

"Everyone knows measuring strength of schedule by the previous season's win percentage is deeply flawed. The Bengals are certainly a more formidable opponent than the Vikings, for example, even though Minnesota won more games last year. Using the FPI, we can get much closer to a true measure of schedule strength because it's looking at opponents based on their forecasted strength."

ESPN touting their own metric as "more accurate" is taken with a big handful of salt.

[pdub]

Sure.
But i'd be willing to bet the Chiefs schedule ends up in the upper half of difficulty.

[twocoach]

Sure.
But i'd be willing to bet the Chiefs schedule ends up in the upper half of difficulty.

As should be expected based on how the NFL builds schedules for division winners. I am happy they get to play a lot of tough games and even happier that they tend to win a decent chunk of those tough games. It will be interesting to see how good the NFC North and AFC East games end up being.

[Shirley]

https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/statu ... wsrc%5Etfw

[pdub]

NFL core offense rankings:

19 Chiefs

"...Travis Kelce benefits from playing with Patrick Mahomes, but anyone who has played even casual attention to the Chiefs over the last few seasons has seen Kelce routinely get himself open and create after the catch on a weekly basis..."

"The Chiefs also found an upgrade at running back last year in Isiah Pacheco, who gave them the power back they needed to challenge teams that tried to face them with light boxes..."

"So why did the Chiefs fall back from their 16th-place finish? The wide receiver depth chart is even sketchier. The nominal top wideout at the moment is Kadarius Toney, who has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps exactly once in two NFL seasons. Skyy Moore, a second-rounder last year, failed to make an impact before scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs added another second-round wideout in Rashee Rice, they lost two regulars in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/ ... kings-2023

[Sparko]

The Chiefs have an improved MVS, Toney, Moore, Rice, Watson and two Reeds, plus a pretty good stable of TEs and RBs. So, the prediction is a tad off and early.

[pdub]

The 'improved' is a bit moot as every NFL player then is improved.
None of the names you mentioned are top 25 WRs - except maybe Toney if he's on the field - but that if is the reason he's not a top 25 WR yet.

[twocoach]

NFL core offense rankings:

19 Chiefs

"...Travis Kelce benefits from playing with Patrick Mahomes, but anyone who has played even casual attention to the Chiefs over the last few seasons has seen Kelce routinely get himself open and create after the catch on a weekly basis..."

"The Chiefs also found an upgrade at running back last year in Isiah Pacheco, who gave them the power back they needed to challenge teams that tried to face them with light boxes..."

"So why did the Chiefs fall back from their 16th-place finish? The wide receiver depth chart is even sketchier. The nominal top wideout at the moment is Kadarius Toney, who has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps exactly once in two NFL seasons. Skyy Moore, a second-rounder last year, failed to make an impact before scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs added another second-round wideout in Rashee Rice, they lost two regulars in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/ ... kings-2023

The 28 passing yards per game gap between the 1st place Chiefs and the 2nd place Bucs was as big as the gap between the 2nd place Bucs and the 9th place Eagles so it doesn't appear to matter much what some rando thinks of their skill player group abilities as they had them ranked 16th last year. Just more offseason drivel to fill content space.

[pdub]

Ah, but you're missing something very important here.
( beyond not mentioning the rushing yards from the RBs )
This does not factor in the best player in the NFL.

This is more, if you picked the most average QB in the NFL, say Derek Carr, and then gave him these core RBs, WRs, TEs, which of those would be best and which would be worst.

[twocoach]

The 'improved' is a bit moot as every NFL player then is improved.
None of the names you mentioned are top 25 WRs - except maybe Toney if he's on the field - but that if is the reason he's not a top 25 WR yet.

JuJu was 24th in yards at 933 last year. I feel confident that someone in that group can get to that number.

Heck, here's the numbers from last year's Top 4 of the WR group:

JuJu: 78 catches for 933 yards
MVS: 42 catches for 687 yards
Justin Watson: 15 catches for 315 yards
Hardman: 25 catches for 297 yards

I feel quite confident that this year's group can replicate those numbers.