It's Only (Your?) Money

[Shirley]

The Recession is Coming | Prof G Markets

[Shirley]

Meta. PayPal. X. All of these tech companies have made attempts at a “super app” in the U.S., following the success of WeChat in China, but have yet to get one off the ground. Tech leaders have struggled to combine elements like social media, messaging, payment and more into one place. So what’s holding the U.S. back from having a super app available?

WSJ explains why, despite challenges, companies still see it as their holy grail product.

Why It's So Hard for Meta, PayPal and X to Build a Super App Like WeChat | WSJ

[KUTradition]

it’ll hit anti-trust issues if it ever comes to fruition, just like google and amazon (and others)

[Shirley]

it’ll hit anti-trust issues if it ever comes to fruition, just like google and amazon (and others)

^^^

Speaking of which, watch this and see what you think about Amazon being a "monopoly".

10/4/23 FTC Takes on Amazon | Prof G Markets

[JKLivin]

We've been in a recession for almost two years now, save for politically-motivated semantics games.

[jhawks99]

Someone copy me to tell psych he's wrong again. Coward blocked me.

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
"the country is in the depths of a recession"

[Shirley]

We've been in a recession for almost two years now, save for politically-motivated semantics games.

I kinda started this thread over here instead of the politics forum for a reason, but considering how far down the cultist hole you are, it comes as no surprise that you have nothing else to offer.

[Shirley]

Pro tip, 99, if you want Psych to get it, don't make your post so complicated:

Someone copy me to tell psych he's wrong again. Coward blocked me.

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
"the country is in the depths of a recession"

[jfish26]

The monster I’m seeing around the corner is what will happen if/when a major reinsurer (the companies that insure the insurance companies) fails, most likely due to a massive wave or flood (sorry) of P&C claims arising out of weather events that used to be, but no longer are, extraordinary.

The economic effects alone will be devastating, and the social ramifications are quite significant as well - it would seem that we’ll either (1) have a massive federal bailout of insurance companies (resulting in, more or less, the government (us) insuring homes in high-risk areas), or (2) tell people in high-risk areas that they’re on their own.

Either way you’ll see a lot of intra-US migration, from red to blue, which will have its own knock-on issues.

[ousdahl]

I heard there’s a major housing market crash coming this winter, or sooner

[JKLivin]

We've been in a recession for almost two years now, save for politically-motivated semantics games.

I kinda started this thread over here instead of the politics forum for a reason, but considering how far down the cultist hole you are, it comes as no surprise that you have nothing else to offer.

Stop complaining and put me on IGNORE, bro. I'm tired of your bitching.

[japhy]

The monster I’m seeing around the corner is what will happen if/when a major reinsurer (the companies that insure the insurance companies) fails, most likely due to a massive wave or flood (sorry) of P&C claims arising out of weather events that used to be, but no longer are, extraordinary.

The economic effects alone will be devastating, and the social ramifications are quite significant as well - it would seem that we’ll either (1) have a massive federal bailout of insurance companies (resulting in, more or less, the government (us) insuring homes in high-risk areas), or (2) tell people in high-risk areas that they’re on their own.

Either way you’ll see a lot of intra-US migration, from red to blue, which will have its own knock-on issues.

I see this as one of the big future financial issues. It has already started with insurance companies pulling out of CA and FL. We will get to see the difference in how Newsom and DeSantis approach the problem, and the results, soon.

I don't worry too much about recessions as they are temporary financial hiccups. The shift from the issue above will probably be permanent. The middle class will take the biggest hit as this will reduce property values and that is the group with much of their wealth in their homes.

[Sparko]

Speaking of ignore, a lot of partisans of a particular stripe ignored us into this crisis faster than forecasted.

[japhy]

The good news is that the younger generation is catching onto this shift. And maybe that the boomers don't figure to live long enough to suffer the consequences.

I am looking at you, you old fucks with all of your medical issues that make you too feeble to be my friends any more.

Anyway this is interesting.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... isk-study/

My go-to website for residential real estate is redfin. Your have to scroll down past the schools and other info but these ratings are shown on their listings now.

https://www.redfin.com/guides/climate-c ... ethodology

When we started looking for property in the Empire a marital debate broke out. Annie wanted to be "in the mountains and trees" because she thought that was the point of living in Colorado. Her point of view was Minnesota Lake Country and her ideal was a "lake cabin". This was aspirational as her family never had a lake cabin. They did for awhile have a "lake shack". Her father being an industrious if not ethical sort once claimed a very small rocky "island" in a large lake and put up a premanufactured shed building on it and built bunk beds and the family spent summers there. Eventually the State of MN came calling and asking wtf? The cabin burnt to the ground under mysterious circumstances, but it was simpler than dismantling and hauling it out of the National Forest I guess.

I was in favor of owning a home on the plain with a view of the mountains and trees. One of our early trips out there a wildfire occurred near La Veta Pass and closed Highway 160, one of only two routes into the valley from the east. We were 50 miles away and it was this huge monster on the horizon every day. It was then that my pragmatism won out. We go to the mountains and hang out in the trees any time we want, it is only a 15 minute drive.

And as I splained it, living in the desert is like living on a huge lake of sand.

[japhy]

Speaking of ignore, a lot of partisans of a particular stripe ignored us into this crisis faster than forecasted.

Footdragging on everyone's part was inevitable. My take on the "faster" part is that predictive models were off and shit happens faster than we can update models. I only model building frames in computer simulations and the results are still only predictive of behavior to within 10%, maybe. And that is a simple system with few variables. I can't imagine trying to model a system as big as a planet and consider all of the variables and make accurate predictions of behavior.

But they did, but the timeline seems to be compressing. We have all been warned. What you do with the info is up to you. This is shaping up to potentially be the most massive socio-economic crises in history.

Possibly more consequential than the LGBTQ Groomer Agenda!

[Shirley]

We've been in a recession for almost two years now, save for politically-motivated semantics games.

I kinda started this thread over here instead of the politics forum for a reason, but considering how far down the cultist hole you are, it comes as no surprise that you have nothing else to offer.

Stop complaining and put me on IGNORE, bro. I'm tired of your bitching.

Sorry to see you're cycling again, Psych.

[JKLivin]

I kinda started this thread over here instead of the politics forum for a reason, but considering how far down the cultist hole you are, it comes as no surprise that you have nothing else to offer.

Stop complaining and put me on IGNORE, bro. I'm tired of your bitching.

Sorry to see you're cycling again, Psych.

I'm not upset. I just hate to see you getting so irritated for no reason. I'm not going anywhere; you're not going anywhere. Do yourself a favor and remove the source of the problem. There's no shame in it.

[Shirley]

Stop complaining and put me on IGNORE, bro. I'm tired of your bitching.

Sorry to see you're cycling again, Psych.

I'm not upset. I just had to see you getting so irritated for no reason. I'm not going anywhere; you're not going anywhere. Do yourself a favor and remove the source of the problem. There's no shame in it.

[JKLivin]

Sorry to see you're cycling again, Psych.

I'm not upset. I just had to see you getting so irritated for no reason. I'm not going anywhere; you're not going anywhere. Do yourself a favor and remove the source of the problem. There's no shame in it.

My bad. Please enlighten me.

[Shirley]

The monster I’m seeing around the corner is what will happen if/when a major reinsurer (the companies that insure the insurance companies) fails, most likely due to a massive wave or flood (sorry) of P&C claims arising out of weather events that used to be, but no longer are, extraordinary.

The economic effects alone will be devastating, and the social ramifications are quite significant as well - it would seem that we’ll either (1) have a massive federal bailout of insurance companies (resulting in, more or less, the government (us) insuring homes in high-risk areas), or (2) tell people in high-risk areas that they’re on their own.

Either way you’ll see a lot of intra-US migration, from red to blue, which will have its own knock-on issues.

I see this as one of the big future financial issues. It has already started with insurance companies pulling out of CA and FL. We will get to see the difference in how Newsom and DeSantis approach the problem, and the results, soon.

I don't worry too much about recessions as they are temporary financial hiccups. The shift from the issue above will probably be permanent. The middle class will take the biggest hit as this will reduce property values and that is the group with much of their wealth in their homes.

^^^

Jamie Dimon’s (CEO of JPM) definition of a financial crisis is “something that happens every five to seven years.”

Living at 11' above sea level ~ ½ mile from the ocean, I worry about "massive wave or flood (sorry) of P&C claims arising out of weather events that used to be, but no longer are, extraordinary", all the time.

When money was nearly free, (ZIRP, zero interest rate policy), and people were incentivized to move to FL where they could be outside year around, the value of my house on paper more than doubled in less than 4 years. My (only child) daughter and granddaughters, (only grands) are here and I have to live somewhere, so I've never given the increased value much thought. But now that borrowing money costs more and the weather risks > insurance > replacement costs are soaring, I'm sure those days are over.

Thankfully, now that the ravages of climate change are so obvious, I'm sure Americans will recognize the need to change, make the requisite changes and sacrifice, and things will be back to normal in not time.