pdub wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:39 pm
I could see a lot of people putting 50 bucks down on Steph to hit the first 3.
The issue with bonus bets ( they are still good since they are free/bonus ) is that you don't get that wager back...so it's basically insurance to TRY and get your losses back.
If I hit on a standard +100 bet with 50, I get 100 bucks.
If I hit on a bonus +100 bet with 50, I get 50 bucks.
Right. So you have to discount the EV of the bonus bet (something like 0.95x), especially considering you cannot combine it with sweeteners (boosts and so on).
I still think you can do this in a positive-EV way...but you have to be ok with a 40-45%ish chance of losing $50. Not sure I'm in.
pdub wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 6:08 am
Curry was the smart bet.
He couldn’t have been better than +150.
So a lotta bros won 25 bucks last night.
25 3s though so you got a 50 dollar bonus if you lost…so now you’re just trying to make your loss back.
I have been doing well with NBA unders.
He was +185 when I looked at it, and the minimum bet was $50. You didn't need to lose the bet to get the bonus. So your $50 woulda paid off nicely...but I did not bet it!
NOT GUTTERED!
Yesterday I received my monthly bonus from Twinspires. It was $47.
Not sure who ultimately gets fucked by this but I took that $47 and hit the early pick 5 at Gulfstream which paid me $367.30, then the 1st race Superfecta at Santa Anita which paid me $139.36, then the 5th race Superfecta at Charles Town which paid me $80.34, then the 9th race Superfecta at Turfway which paid me $106.39. I hit a few small hedge bets too. Made $772.11 (in profit) on the day.
Disciplined me took $500 out of the account. Now I have $272 to play with today.
Law of averages (?) says I will lose all that today. Stay tuned.
I'm off to the races......
MICHHAWK wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:48 am
your posting history on this this site alone. says you should not be calling other people stupid.
Absolutely sucks I can't wager on college games with teams from the state of Illinois.
Best bet of the day was the Illness getting points against Buckey Badger.
MICHHAWK wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:48 am
your posting history on this this site alone. says you should not be calling other people stupid.
TCU fucked me in my ass with a can of beans and no lube.
Had them +10.5 and +11.5 in two teasers and they were my only loss.
They were up 46-29 at the half and I felt pretty good. Outscored 58-29 in the 2nd half.
MICHHAWK wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:48 am
your posting history on this this site alone. says you should not be calling other people stupid.
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:25 am
KU better not fuck up senior night.
Win by 9+.
Furphy do well. Kevin pass it to him.
Do the oddsmakers figure in Jank, Parker and Timberlake starts? And taking dudes off the floor at the end? Would be very nervous, even if we play well, about getting backdoored.
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:25 am
KU better not fuck up senior night.
Win by 9+.
Furphy do well. Kevin pass it to him.
Do the oddsmakers figure in Jank, Parker and Timberlake starts? And taking dudes off the floor at the end? Would be very nervous, even if we play well, about getting backdoored.
I'm not sure why we'd start any of the 1st year seniors who aren't already starters.
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:05 pm
While our team is pretty meh-tastic at the moment, we usually kick the shit outta the kitties in AFH.
I'm remaining positive here.
Should I, being positive, use a 100% SGP boost to bet big on Hunter boards?
