Kansas Crimson

pdub wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:39 pm I could see a lot of people putting 50 bucks down on Steph to hit the first 3.

The issue with bonus bets ( they are still good since they are free/bonus ) is that you don't get that wager back...so it's basically insurance to TRY and get your losses back.

If I hit on a standard +100 bet with 50, I get 100 bucks.
If I hit on a bonus +100 bet with 50, I get 50 bucks.

Right. So you have to discount the EV of the bonus bet (something like 0.95x), especially considering you cannot combine it with sweeteners (boosts and so on).

I still think you can do this in a positive-EV way...but you have to be ok with a 40-45%ish chance of losing $50. Not sure I'm in.

I ain't taking that but if I did, it'd probably be on Jalen Brunson + 400.

1st 3 was Curry 17 seconds in the the game.

Got lucky the last 2 nights...
Last night....
Ohio State -3.5
Memphis money
Rutgers money
USC +6.5
Gongazga money
$2 paid $26.04

Two nights ago....
Marquette money
Tennessee money
Mavs money
Iowa State money
TWolves money
S. Carolina +5.5
Creighton money
Nuggets money
Arizona money
$1 paid $12.38

Curry was the smart bet.
He couldn’t have been better than +150.
So a lotta bros won 25 bucks last night.

25 3s though so you got a 50 dollar bonus if you lost…so now you’re just trying to make your loss back.

I have been doing well with NBA unders.

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 6:08 am Curry was the smart bet.
He couldn’t have been better than +150.
So a lotta bros won 25 bucks last night.

25 3s though so you got a 50 dollar bonus if you lost…so now you’re just trying to make your loss back.

I have been doing well with NBA unders.

He was +185 when I looked at it, and the minimum bet was $50. You didn't need to lose the bet to get the bonus. So your $50 woulda paid off nicely...but I did not bet it!

NOT GUTTERED!
Yesterday I received my monthly bonus from Twinspires. It was $47.
Not sure who ultimately gets fucked by this but I took that $47 and hit the early pick 5 at Gulfstream which paid me $367.30, then the 1st race Superfecta at Santa Anita which paid me $139.36, then the 5th race Superfecta at Charles Town which paid me $80.34, then the 9th race Superfecta at Turfway which paid me $106.39. I hit a few small hedge bets too. Made $772.11 (in profit) on the day.

Disciplined me took $500 out of the account. Now I have $272 to play with today.
Law of averages (?) says I will lose all that today. Stay tuned.
I'm off to the races......

Why the foul?!

Yes!!!!

Well at least there’s that.
Thanks for missing the FT.

Absolutely sucks I can't wager on college games with teams from the state of Illinois.
Best bet of the day was the Illness getting points against Buckey Badger.

TCU fucked me in my ass with a can of beans and no lube.
Had them +10.5 and +11.5 in two teasers and they were my only loss.
They were up 46-29 at the half and I felt pretty good. Outscored 58-29 in the 2nd half.

KU better not fuck up senior night.
Win by 9+.
Furphy do well. Kevin pass it to him.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:25 am KU better not fuck up senior night.
Win by 9+.
Furphy do well. Kevin pass it to him.

Do the oddsmakers figure in Jank, Parker and Timberlake starts? And taking dudes off the floor at the end? Would be very nervous, even if we play well, about getting backdoored.

While our team is pretty meh-tastic at the moment, we usually kick the shit outta the kitties in AFH.
I'm remaining positive here.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:03 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:25 am KU better not fuck up senior night.
Win by 9+.
Furphy do well. Kevin pass it to him.

Do the oddsmakers figure in Jank, Parker and Timberlake starts? And taking dudes off the floor at the end? Would be very nervous, even if we play well, about getting backdoored.

I'm not sure why we'd start any of the 1st year seniors who aren't already starters.

Start Jank. Fuck the others.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:05 pm While our team is pretty meh-tastic at the moment, we usually kick the shit outta the kitties in AFH.
I'm remaining positive here.

Should I, being positive, use a 100% SGP boost to bet big on Hunter boards?

Hunter has burned me twice this season.
I'm not touching anything Hunter related again.

Johnny and Dajuan?
Money in the bank.

Problem being, if they do play "seniors" extra minutes, then Furphy will be one of the people they are coming from.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:20 pm Hunter has burned me twice this season.
I'm not touching anything Hunter related again.

Johnny and Dajuan?
Money in the bank.

I made some coin on Dajuan's assists number being 6.5 earlier this year.

I ALSO made some coin the other way on Jackson's being 2.5.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:31 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:20 pm Hunter has burned me twice this season.
I'm not touching anything Hunter related again.

Johnny and Dajuan?
Money in the bank.

I made some coin on Dajuan's assists number being 6.5 earlier this year.

I ALSO made some coin the other way on Jackson's being 2.5.

There were a few games earlier where they had Dajuan's base at 5.5.
Jumped on those ones.