Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Deleted User 863]

LOL didn't you just throw a tantrum and quit for a few weeks because PDub won't ban everyone you don't like?


I am trying to be an adult here (at the moment), but you can't resist turning every thread into your own personal argument with either me or someone else (yes i argue, but typically i am attempting to argue about the subject at hand)...

Why respond to everything i post with an attempt to turn it into a personal bitch fest? You clearly don't like me which is fine. But why do this every day?

I posted an article about the housing market. Rather than discuss (OR JUST FUCKING IGNORE IT) you and cascadia rush in for the personal attacks. Are you really that bored? If there is no attempt at real discussion then just foe me and i disappear from your world. But i can't fathom why you find this type of interaction enjoyable. Every. Single. Day.

[Deleted User 89]

you mad, bro?

[Deleted User 89]

my taking a hiatus had zero to do with the way pdub runs this site

[Deleted User 863]

I am not mad at all actually. Just trying to understand the point of your daily never ending attempts at personal insults/arguments with a complete stranger.

[Cascadia]

There is nothing related to the topic that is worth discussing.

The housing market is hot as home prices continue to rise, but Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller predicts prices will eventually drop.

Holy shit, you have to be fucking kidding me. The market will not always go up!?!?!? Groundbreaking news!!!!

Thanks for the heads up. Good thing I sold my house prior to the market crash of winter 2019!

[MICHHAWK]

haven't you ever met an internet bully. there are millions of them out there.

[Deleted User 863]

If there is nothing worth discussing then just scroll on by. Shouldn't be that hard.

[Deleted User 863]

haven't you ever met an internet bully. there are millions of them.

I have now apparently. Strange what anonymity does to some people.

[Cascadia]

If there is nothing worth discussing then just scroll on by. Shouldn't be that hard.

lol bro, I'll post however I like.

[Deleted User 863]

If there is nothing worth discussing then just scroll on by. Shouldn't be that hard.

lol bro, I'll post however I like.

Fair enough.

You are free to continue your never ending meltdown now.

[japhy]

But think about it like this....many people buy as much house (or close to it) as the bank will finance.

What year are you living in? It's not 2006.

The number of buyers who are putting down 50% on a mortgage, or are doing all cash purchases right now is at ridiculous levels. You don't walk away from a house you paid cash for and are renting to someone if the "value" drops. Renters still need a pace to live.

If you had a 0% down mortgage you did walk away, but that was 12-13 years ago.

Current homeowners in the US are sitting on record amounts of equity, and it is not just from appreciation and rising values. It is also large down payments to start out with.

[Deleted User 89]

But think about it like this....many people buy as much house (or close to it) as the bank will finance.

What year are you living in? It's not 2006.

The number of buyers who are putting down 50% on a mortgage, or are doing all cash purchases right now is at ridiculous levels. You don't walk away from a house you paid cash for and are renting to someone if the "value" drops. Renters still need a pace to live.

If you had a 0% down mortgage you did walk away, but that was 12-13 years ago.

Current homeowners in the US are sitting on record amounts of equity, and it is not just from appreciation and rising values. It is also large down payments to start out with.

this is the scenario i’ve been hearing as well

a buddy here in SLC just bought, and i’ve got two friends in real estate in Lawrence

a whole lot of people have cash on-hand, and are out-pricing/bidding people that are wrangling with substantial financing

[Deleted User 863]

But think about it like this....many people buy as much house (or close to it) as the bank will finance.

What year are you living in? It's not 2006.

The number of buyers who are putting down 50% on a mortgage, or are doing all cash purchases right now is at ridiculous levels. You don't walk away from a house you paid cash for and are renting to someone if the "value" drops. Renters still need a pace to live.

If you had a 0% down mortgage you did walk away, but that was 12-13 years ago.

Current homeowners in the US are sitting on record amounts of equity, and it is not just from appreciation and rising values. It is also large down payments to start out with.

I see almost 0 loans with 50% down payments on homes going secondary market for primary residences (and at under 3% why on earth would anyone pass up money that cheap?)... granted with a 50% down payment we may just elect to match the low FNMA rate and keep that loan on the books in-house. Maybe thats unique to certain areas? I help manage secondary market loans for an almost 1 billion dollar bank and i can say we typically have borrowers putting down 7-15% for their primary residences. Certainly not 0%, but rarely anything more than 20-25%.

You lost me at the part about walking away from properties you paid cash for? I said nothing about wide spread foreclosures or people just walking away from properties.

My theory (for my area at least) is that currently very low inventory / low rates AND cost of new construction (so less new construction than normal) are what are causing values to rise in the short term. We went from a 20-30 average days on market type of area to a less than a week on the market type of area in less than 1 year. That isn't normal.

[japhy]

Mostly I have been dealing with the Denver/Colorado Springs market for the last 7 years. If your offer wasn't showing 50% our more cash, then your offer went to the bottom of the pile. At that number we don't have to worry about the bank wanting to inspect and/or waiting for you to qualify for a loan. Every list of offers I saw over the course of the last several years included all cash offers, and closing in 2 weeks. In the market we were looking at most homes sold in 2-3 days. You see them on a Friday and there is a contract in place on Sunday night. With the amount of skin in the game that most of these buyers have I am not worried about defaults in my neighborhood causing values to drop. In 2008 my wife had almost half of the homes on her block in foreclosure when she wanted to sell. A lot of 0-5% down loans, and when people lost theirs jobs it made more sense to walk away from the house they had less than $10k into, than to try and struggle to save it. Different times and different markets and different price points. But when you talk about walking away from $100k or more most people won't do that. I am not worried about any correction when it comes this time around. People losing hypothetical money they were sitting on and not using to pay day to day bills isn't a recipe for a crisis.

[Deleted User 863]

Mostly I have been dealing with the Denver/Colorado Springs market for the last 7 years. If your offer wasn't showing 50% our more cash, then your offer went to the bottom of the pile. At that number we don't have to worry about the bank wanting to inspect and/or waiting for you to qualify for a loan. Every list of offers I saw over the course of the last several years included all cash offers, and closing in 2 weeks. In the market we were looking at most homes sold in 2-3 days. You see them on a Friday and there is a contract in place on Sunday night. With the amount of skin in the game that most of these buyers have I am not worried about defaults in my neighborhood causing values to drop. In 2008 my wife had almost half of the homes on her block in foreclosure when she wanted to sell. A lot of 0-5% down loans, and when people lost theirs jobs it made more sense to walk away from the house they had less than $10k into, than to try and struggle to save it. Different times and different markets and different price points. But when you talk about walking away from $100k or more most people won't do that. I am not worried about any correction when it comes this time around. People losing hypothetical money they were sitting on and not using to pay day to day bills isn't a recipe for a crisis.

Makes sense in markets with population growth. Both the amount of cash offers and the value being a little less susceptible to volatility.

You're also talking about 1 of the 5-10 hottest markets in the country (just a guesstimate there) due population growth and/or popularity (both as a place to live and a place to own a 2nd home)...others coming to mind would be nashville austin etc.

But when i see housing prices rising quickly in areas with little to no population growth that is where i would start to worry a little bit about some people in the long run....and not just in terms of foreclosures because the way it's set up now it is pretty difficult to foreclose on primary residences (as it should be), but more in terms of people over extending a bit now because of either rate appeal and/or making some money off the sale of their previous home AND then paying a premium due to low inventory in their areas. That could cause some trouble down the line. But only time will tell. Maybe rates never go up again? I just don't see how that's sustainable long term, but that's never stopped us before.

Again, no doom and gloom here. But i do think some/many markets in low growth areas with low inventory are being artificially inflated and that'll hurt some people on the back end.

[twocoach]

Mostly I have been dealing with the Denver/Colorado Springs market for the last 7 years. If your offer wasn't showing 50% our more cash, then your offer went to the bottom of the pile. At that number we don't have to worry about the bank wanting to inspect and/or waiting for you to qualify for a loan. Every list of offers I saw over the course of the last several years included all cash offers, and closing in 2 weeks. In the market we were looking at most homes sold in 2-3 days. You see them on a Friday and there is a contract in place on Sunday night. With the amount of skin in the game that most of these buyers have I am not worried about defaults in my neighborhood causing values to drop. In 2008 my wife had almost half of the homes on her block in foreclosure when she wanted to sell. A lot of 0-5% down loans, and when people lost theirs jobs it made more sense to walk away from the house they had less than $10k into, than to try and struggle to save it. Different times and different markets and different price points. But when you talk about walking away from $100k or more most people won't do that. I am not worried about any correction when it comes this time around. People losing hypothetical money they were sitting on and not using to pay day to day bills isn't a recipe for a crisis.

Makes sense in markets with population growth. Both the amount of cash offers and the value being a little less susceptible to volatility.

You're also talking about 1 of the 5-10 hottest markets in the country (just a guesstimate there) due population growth and/or popularity (both as a place to live and a place to own a 2nd home)...others coming to mind would be nashville austin etc.

But when i see housing prices rising quickly in areas with little to no population growth that is where i would start to worry a little bit about some people in the long run....and not just in terms of foreclosures because the way it's set up now it is pretty difficult to foreclose on primary residences (as it should be), but more in terms of people over extending a bit now because of either rate appeal and/or making some money off the sale of their previous home AND then paying a premium due to low inventory in their areas. That could cause some trouble down the line. But only time will tell. Maybe rates never go up again? I just don't see how that's sustainable long term, but that's never stopped us before.

Again, no doom and gloom here. But i do think some/many markets in low growth areas with low inventory are being artificially inflated and that'll hurt some people on the back end.

Home purchases as an investment have always had the risk of a financial pain attached to them. The riskier the purchase (not enough down payment, too much house, etc...) the more likely the pain. It has always been that way just as the housing industry has always had ebbs and flows. A simple google search can provide a consumer a wealth of tools to help them avoid financial mistakes so I don't really empathize with people whose have questionable house purchases go sideways. There's always an exception to the rule here and there but for the most part, there are plenty of free resources available that if followed, can help you avoid a painful ending.

[shindig]

Man I wish I was one of those people that could put down 50% on a house, that's a chunk of change. But I'm just speculating that a lot of those people are transplants that sold their house in California for $1m+ and bought a house where prices are half what they are in California. I believe between 2010-2020, California in the first time lost population.

[japhy]

The people who bought our condo in Lakewood came from San Francisco. She relocated for work, new job as a director of marketing. They had $550K in cash for the purchase. Our equity from owning the place 4 years was enough to put 50% down on our house in Colorado Springs.

Interesting new pressure on the market.

We have started getting calls from condo associations all over the country wanting to have structural assessments done of their multi-story buildings. The fees for these would likely be in the $50k-$200k range. Nice sized projects for professional opinion services. The downside, the requests all seem to have attorneys attached in some fashion. We had a partner meeting yesterday and decided we would pass on these projects. Given recent happenings in FL, there would seem to be a lot of liability risk attached. It will be interesting to see who within our profession decides to take a big bite of this work and who else backs off. For small practitioners this will be a gold mine, they will do it as an LLC and might retire when the bubble bursts. Vulture capitalism at it's finest.

Now might be a great time to join Squirt and buy yourself a FL condo if you have cash. Wait that's not Squirt.

[Deleted User 89]

eh...squirt does a lot of talking (out of his ass)

[Walrus]

It's going to be really unfortunate that employers are going to face massive lawsuits when employers realize their health was damaged by the vaccines. The problem is, there won't be enough money to pay out everyone. This could be the black swan that collapses everything.